Gas Market
The NBP market eased somewhat on Friday after Thursday’s sharp gains. U.S President Donald Trump announced late on Thursday that he would take two weeks to make a decision as to whether or not the U.S. would directly join the conflict between Israel and Iran. The decision-making delay created a window of opportunity for peace negotiations that alleviated the recent upside. The front month contract shed 2.01p day-on-day to close the week at 96.19p per therm. The prompt market was also in decline on the day, with ongoing warmer than normal temperatures and high wind output forecasts weighing on gas demand levels. The Day ahead contract posted a 2.27p loss to end the session at 96.83p per therm, while Within day fell by 1.70p to close at 98.00p per therm.
Power Market
Well above-average wind output drove GB Baseload prompt prices down on Friday. The Day ahead contract fell by 53.0% to end the day at £41.95/MWh. Temperatures were also forecast to remain above seasonal average this week, albeit to a lesser extent than of late, compounding the downside. Further out, the near curve followed NBP front months down, with the July 25 contract shedding £1.80/MWh to close at £81.95/MWh.
European carbon markets showed some modest upside on Friday with options hedging appearing to be the main driver. Meanwhile, gains were capped by the weakness across the rest of the energy complex, with the Spot EUA contract up by just €0.06 a tonne by the close.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices edged down on Friday from the near 5-month highs of last Thursday. Donald Trump’s decision to push-back a ruling on U.S. military involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict provided the downward pressure, with the delay providing a window for peace-making discussions. The U.S. also imposed new Iran-related sanctions that was seen as a more diplomatic approach that further fed hopes of a negotiated peace agreement. The front month Brent contract shed $1.84 day-on-day to end the week at $77.01 a barrel, a gain of 19.2% since the start of the month. On the West Texas Intermediate market, oil for August 2025 delivery fell by $1.76 to end the session at $73.84 a barrel.
Markets This Morning
The escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel over the weekend, as well as the U.S. attacks on Iran’s nuclear sites has stirred volatility across energy markets this morning. NBP prices will be tentative to any news regarding the Strait of Hormuz, pending a decision from Iran’s Supreme National Council on whether or not to ratify a vote taken by parliament on Sunday to proceed with its closure. The strait is a critical checkpoint for approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas flows. After opening more than 3.00p above its previous close, the front month NBP contract last went through at 96.74p, a gain of 1.34p day-on-day. After an initial price surge, the front month Brent contract has edged back down, currently trading just 34 cents above Friday’s close.
23 June 2025
