Gas Market
On Friday near NBP futures ticked up by around a penny which was a modest increase for the day but brought average gains for the week to 4.50p per therm. While Europe’s storage levels have recovered to above 62%, there are concerns that reinjecting over the summer to meet targets could inflate prices. At the close, the front month, August was 1.07p up at 85.27p. The Winter-25 contract settled at 96.16p, adding 1.08p day-on-day or 3.85p for the week. The ongoing heatwave coupled with low wind drove gas demand higher on Friday which provided some support to the prompt, however, increased imports capped gains on the day. The Day ahead price for Monday settled a half a penny higher but was up over 5.00p over the week. The Balance of month product moved in line with the front of the curve and settled 0.95p higher.
Power Market
Baseload futures settled higher on Friday with support from corresponding futures on the NBP curve. The front months settled an average of £0.85/MWh up, however, increases on the day were limited by weaker carbon prices. European Allowances for 2025 and 2026 declined by 20 cent per tonne on average with contracts settling at €70.60 and €72.46 per tonne.
Baseload for the day ahead settled 2.5% or just over £2.00/MWh lower on Friday. For Monday, wind generation is forecast above the average levels of 5.0GW seen over the last week. Solar generation is expected to remain at around 4.5GW.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices settled higher on Friday following reports of tight supplies from the International Energy Agency. The Paris based agency indicated supplies may be tighter than appears for the short therm as oil rigs operating in the U.S. fell for the 11th week in succession. While OPEC+ increase output, the IEA expect global supply to increase by 2.1m barrels per day this year. However, they also added that global demand will increase by 700,000 barrels per day this year which would leave a large surplus. The move on the day recovered the losses due to renewed U.S. tariff concerns seen on Thursday. The U.S. president also raised expectations of further sanctions on Russia and said he’d reveal his plans for Russia on Monday.
Markets this morning
Expectations that the U.S. administration is to ramp up sanctions on Russia has provided a lift to crude oil prices this morning. The U.S. President is expected to make an announcement about Russia later today. Brent last traded at $70.70 a barrel which is an increase of 43 cents from Friday’s close. In the gas markets, near futures for the NBP have traded higher this morning shrugging off the threat of 30% tariffs for the EU from the U.S. President. The front month, August, last exchanged 1.36p per therm higher at 86.63p. The Winter-25 contract has traded at 97.21p, up 1.05p. There have been not trades posted on the prompt screen as yet, and GB gas demand remains above the seasonal norm, but the system is forecast 10mcm long today.
