Gas Market
After spending much of Wednesday’s morning session in positive territory, NBP curve prices began to fall back in the afternoon. Despite the US – Japan trade agreement reached late on Tuesday providing a somewhat renewed economic outlook, markets remained tentative to the ongoing US – EU trade negotiations. Meanwhile, peace talks between Russia and Ukraine had little market impact, considering their limited progress. The front month contract continued to test the water at sub-80.00p levels, shedding 1.23p by the close to settle at 78.56p per therm. Reduced domestic demand coupled with a decline in gas-for-power demand weighed on the prompt, with the Day ahead contract falling by 1.30p to close at 79.90p per therm. Meanwhile the Spot market shrugged off an undersupplied system and muted renewable output to decline by 1.10p day-on-day to settle at 79.65p per therm.
Power Market
GB Baseload future contracts were driven by losses across the NBP gas market on Wednesday. While the front month contract shed just £0.03/MWh, losses elsewhere on the near curve were more pronounced, with the September 25 contract declining by £0.72/MWh to close at £77.50/MWh. On the prompt, the Day ahead contract traded flat, closing at £82.00/MWh for the second day running, with a downward revision to wind generation levels doing little to provide support.
European carbon prices made modest gains, going against the direction of the wider energy complex due to muted selling activity. Dec-25 EUA’s edged up by €0.11 to close at €69.29 a tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices maintained their recent trend of modest declines on Wednesday. The recently announced trade deal between the U.S. and Japan had limited impact on prices as talks between the U.S. and the E.U. and China appear to have stalled, weighing on sentiment. While the European Commission has maintained that its primary focus is to achieve a negotiated outcome with the U.S., their plans to submit counter-tariffs for approval to EU members suggests waning confidence in such a result. The front month Brent contract ended the session down by just 8 cents to close at $68.51 a barrel. Meanwhile, the front month West Texas Intermediate contract fell by 6 cents to end the day at $65.25 a barrel.
Markets This Morning
The NBP curve has made a modest recovery from yesterday’s losses so far this morning. The front month contract last went through at 78.98p per therm, a gain of 0.42p day-on-day. Gassco has extended the maintenance outage at Troll once again, now scheduled to end tomorrow. Easing gas-for-power and domestic demand levels are mitigating the impact of the constrained Norwegian supply flows, with the Day ahead contract last transacting at 80.30p per therm, up 0.40p from Wednesday’s settlement. After four consecutive days of losses, the front month Brent contract is currently trading in positive territory on renewed U.S. trade optimism.
24 July 2025
