Gas Market
NBP gas prices eased in early trading, pressured by strong Norwegian flows and the market reaction to the announcement of an EU-U.S. trade deal. While agreement allays fears of an escalating trade war, it includes a 15% tariff on U.S. imports on most EU goods, significantly higher than the effective rate of 2.5% in 2024. Under the deal, the EU is also expected to increase purchases of U.S. energy, primarily crude oil and LNG, to a value of $250 billion annually over the next three years. This figure represents a significant jump from the estimated $64.55 billion worth of U.S. energy imports in 2024 to the EU, highlighting the scale of the proposed shift. Despite early losses, the front-month contract recovered later in the session to settle 0.62p at 79.68p/th, as Trump gave a shorter deadline to Russia of 10 to 12 days to agree a ceasefire with Ukraine, threatening further sanctions.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices were were slightly more bullish, as the Day-ahead price ended up 6.08% due to reduced wind generation forecast for today. Along the curve, prices saw similar movements to gas, with the front month up £1.5 at £74.50/MWh and Winter25 up £1.22 or 1.5% at £84.98/MWh.
EUAs failed to gather any bullish momentum on Monday, as the Dec-25 EUA declined €0.65, or 0.91%, to €70.79/tonne. 2025 UK Allowances started the week up 2.2% at £51.34/tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices climbed 2% on Monday, supported by geopolitical developments and trade optimism. Front-month Brent crude rose $1.60 to settle at $70.04/bbl. Early gains followed the announcement of a U.S.-EU trade deal on Sunday, which eased concerns of an escalating trade war. The agreement included a 15% U.S. import tariff on most EU goods, alongside ambitious commitments for the EU to increase purchases of U.S. energy to the tune of $250 billion annually. Later in the day, prices received an additional boost after U.S. President Donald Trump declared a shortened 10–12-day deadline for Russia to end its war in Ukraine or face secondary sanctions on its crude buyers. Looking ahead, attention turns to this Sunday’s OPEC+ meeting, where the group is expected to agree to a further 548,000 bpd increase of voluntary supply cuts by the end of September as part of its strategy to regain global market share.
Markets this morning
NBP gas prices are trading higher this morning, with the front-month contract up 2.39p at 82.07p/th and Winter-25 gaining 1.88p to 93.25p/th. The gains follow geopolitical tension after Qatar threatened to divert LNG exports away from Europe unless the EU weakens its upcoming corporate sustainability due diligence legislation. Qatar currently supplies around 13% of the EU’s LNG, making the threat a notable risk to regional supply. Oil prices are relatively flat, with front-month Brent up 42 cents at $70.46/bbl. Market sentiment remains cautious amid ongoing uncertainty around the global economic outlook following the U.S.-EU trade deal, as investors await the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
29 July 2025
