Gas Market
Donald Trump’s threat to impose secondary tariffs on India and China for purchasing energy from Russia weakened the energy markets on Thursday. In a post Trump said he would introduce an additional 25% trade tariff on India, which would bring the rate to 50% for goods imported from India. NBP futures had opened softer, but losses were extended through the afternoon following the latest posts from the US President. The front months declined by 2.45p per therm on average while the Winter-25 contract shed 2.36p to close at 90.83p, its lowest settlement for nine days. On the prompt, the Spot and Day ahead eased by over a penny as both contracts closed below 80.00p. Fundamentals remain bearish with low demand due to warm temperatures while wind generation remains above seasonal norms.
Power Market
Lower gas and carbon prices weighed on the GB baseload curve yesterday as the front month fell by £1.45/MWh. The October contract posted the greatest loss of the day falling by £2.45/MWh to £75.15/MWh. Declines diminished as the curve moved out and the Winter-25 contract was assessed at £84.25/MWh, down £1.75/MWh at the close. Robust forecasts for renewables in the stack into the weekend pressured the prompt as the Day ahead eased by 20.0% yesterday.
A flurry of early trading boosted carbon EUAs early on Wednesday, however, the gains were quickly reversed. Trading slowed through the morning and European Allowances for Dec-2025 and Dec-2026 settled 41 cent and 42 cent per tonne lower day-on-day.
Oil Market
After falling by $5.60 over the previous four days, Brent moved back into positive territory yesterday as Trump renewed threats on India with tariffs for buying Russian oil. The gains were short lived however, with the US President muddying the waters with an update of the ceasefire talks held between Steve Witkoff and President Putin. It was uncertain if the talks were successful as there are serious barriers for both sides to overcome before a ceasefire could be brokered but Trump indicated that he could meet both Putin and Zelenskyy very soon. Meanwhile, cracks are starting to widen in the US economy with recent employment data showing a slow down while service sector activity surprised analysts by moving sideways in July. At the close, Brent for October delivery eased by $0.75 to $66.89 a barrel.
Markets This Morning
Trading for NBP futures is more subdued this morning after yesterday’s significant losses. The front month for the curve, September, is down 0.20p per therm at 81.91p while losses to longer curve contracts are closer to half a penny. Prompt prices have yet to get off the mark but a comfortable gas system with no reports of unplanned outages should see the Spot and Day ahead open lower. Wind generation is forecast above the seasonal norm at 14.0GW for the day while solar should top 3.0GW. Crude oil prices have opened a touch firmer with Brent rebounding off a two-month low and adding 32 cents to the price of a barrel of crude oil as latest US data show reserves of crude oil were down 3 million barrels last week.
07 August 2025
