Energy markets fell back on Friday in anticipation of a somewhat positive outcome from the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska

Gas Market

In anticipation of a positive outcome from the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska on Friday, the NBP curve hit lows not seen since April 2024. Although the meeting took place after the gas market had closed, the NBP front month contract was still pulled lower, closing at 76.45p per therm, an 8.7% fall since the start of the month. A step-down in temperatures from the recent highs that drove cooling levels, as well as forecasts for lower domestic demand, provided downside on the prompt market. The Day ahead contract posted a loss of 2.80p to end the week at 75.60p per therm. A heavily oversupplied system throughout the day, despite some ongoing supply niggles, weighed on the Spot market. The Within day contract fell by 3.30p day-on-day to settle at 75.20p per therm.

Power Market

The GB Baseload power curve tracked losses across the NBP gas market on Friday, with the near months falling by an average of £1.77/MWh day-on-day. Meanwhile, the Winter 25 contract fell £2.18/MWh to end the week at £80.28/MWh. On the prompt, the Day ahead contract increased by 4.1% to end the session at £85.00/MWh. Well below average wind generation levels forecast for this week drove the upside. European carbon markets ended Friday’s session in negative territory, following a similar trend seen across the wider energy complex. Dec-25 European Allowances declined by €0.45 day-on-day to close the week at €70.63/MWh.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices retraced a portion of the previous days gains on Friday ahead of the meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska. While hopes of meaningful progress toward a peace agreement and an end to the war in Ukraine was top of the agenda, the prospect of an easing of sanctions imposed on Russia over the war was more pertinent to oil markets. Exacerbating the downside was weaker economic data from China that raised concerns over future fuel demand. Chinese government data showed factory output growth was at an eight-month low, which weighed on sentiment. The front month Brent contract fell by 99 cents day-on-day to close at $65.85 a barrel, just a touch above the recent 10-week low hit on Wednesday.

Markets this morning

After little progress towards peace was made between Trump and Putin on Friday, the NBP market is showing mixed results this morning. While the front month is little changed, having last gone through at 76.56p, up just 0.11p, the Winter 25 contract is so far down by 1.15p, last transacting at 82.82p per therm. Markets will remain tentative to any further developments that may come from Trump’s meeting with Zelenskiy and other European leaders later today. Activity across the Spot and prompt is quiet, although an upward revision to wind generation levels should mitigate upside from an unplanned outage at Troll starting today. Crude oil prices are flat, with the front month contract last going through at $85.86, up just 1 cent day-on-day.