Gas Market
UK gas prices were mixed on Monday, recovering from their lowest level since May 24 as Winter-25 rose 0.30p to 80.58p/therm, while Summer-25 slipped 0.38p to 69.50p/therm. The market struggled to find direction, with attention turning to U.S.-Ukraine talks and the potential for a trilateral summit involving Trump, Putin, and Zelenskyy. While full peace in Ukraine remains highly improbable at this stage, the market is interpreting these meetings as positive signals towards some form of eventual ceasefire. On the supply side, Australia’s Ichthys LNG facility entered maintenance until October, temporarily removing a plant that typically ships 70% of its 9m MT annual output to Japan, around 10% of Japan’s LNG imports. On the prompt, the day-ahead was flat, increasing a mere 0.20p to close at 75.70p/therm amid no notable changes to fundamentals.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices were mixed on Monday as the market struggled to find direction following the Trump-Putin meeting. The September front month contract edged 0.3% higher to £73.50/MWh, while prompt prices weakened, with Day-Ahead power falling 7% to £78.50/MWh on the back of stronger wind generation forecasts for Tuesday.
In carbon, prices closed markedly higher after a late surge in buying ahead of Monday evening’s talks between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy. The benchmark Dec-25 EUA contract rose €1.08, or 1.53%, to settle at €71.71/tonne, despite broader energy markets showing little momentum after Friday’s inconclusive U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska.
Oil Market
Oil prices rose on Monday, with Brent crude settling 75 cents higher at $66.60 a barrel and WTI gaining 62 cents to close at $63.42. The 1% lift followed talks between U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy after Friday’s inconclusive U.S.-Russia summit in Alaska. Trump signalled that the discussions could pave the way for a future trilateral meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, keeping geopolitical risks in focus. Meanwhile, Russian crude flows to Hungary and Slovakia via the Druzhba pipeline were disrupted after Ukrainian drone strikes targeted Russia’s energy infrastructure, heightening supply concerns. Adding further pressure, White House trade adviser Peter Navarro reiterated calls for India to halt purchases of Russian crude, arguing they were helping to finance the war in Ukraine.
Markets this morning
Gas prices opened uncertain this morning as the market digested last night’s meeting between Trump and Zelenskyy, where Trump said the U.S. would help in arranging European security guarantees if peace with Russia could be reached. He also indicated plans were underway for a meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy, raising the prospect of a trilateral summit. The NBP front month initially dropped over 1.0p before rebounding to trade at 77.18p/therm, up 0.21p. Oil prices, meanwhile, moved lower on speculation that progress in talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the U.S. could lead to an easing of sanctions on Russian crude, heightening supply expectations. Brent last traded at $65.79/bbl, down 81 cents.
19 August 2025
