The NBP continues to trade within its recent range, with contracts moving marginally higher on Wednesday

Gas Market

The NBP gas market drifted sideways for a second consecutive session, reflecting a lack of clear direction. In contrast to Tuesday’s movements prices opened lower than the prior settlement but gained through the session. By the close, all curve contracts had posted only marginal gains, as traders balanced bearish fundamentals against technical signals that continue to provide a resistance level. The front-season Winter-25 contract rose by 0.45p/th, settling at 85.40p/th. Despite this modest increase, the contract remains 0.97p/th lower than a week ago. On the prompt, prices also moved sideways. Weak gas-for-power demand was offset by ongoing maintenance on Norwegian gas assets, alongside the risk that this work may be extended, keeping supply concerns in play.

Power Market

Daily movements on the GB baseload curve were mixed, with contracts posting both gains and losses. The power market continues to reflect the directionless nature of gas, with prices drifting from day to day. On the prompt, the Day-ahead contract closed flat as strong renewable generation limited upward momentum. Gains in the UKA allowance market provided some offsetting pressure, but not enough to drive price increases. Compliance buying ahead of the 30th of September surrender deadline continues to support the carbon market. Despite weak fossil fuel markets, EUA’s continue to move higher with the Dec-25 contract increasing by €1.27/tonne to €74.99.

Oil Market

Brent front-month crude fell $1.54 per barrel on Wednesday, a decline of 2.23%, settling at $67.60/bbl. Market attention is firmly fixed on the upcoming Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) meeting scheduled for Sunday, September 7. Eight members of the group are expected to scale back their voluntary production cuts as they look to regain market share. OPEC+, which currently accounts for roughly half of global oil supply, could unwind the equivalent of 1.6% of global demand—nearly a year ahead of schedule. Such a move risks tipping the market into a sizeable supply surplus, a factor already exerting downward pressure on prices.

Markets this morning

The NBP market has shifted back into decline in early trading this morning with all traded contracts trading at a discount to the recent settlement. The front month is down by over 1p/th, last exchanging hands at 77.41p/th while the front season last slipped by 0.60p to 84.80p/th. Crude oil extended declines, weighed by expectations that OPEC+ will agree to increase production at this weekend’s meeting. European carbon allowances eased slightly after Wednesday’s gains, though compliance buying continues to lend underlying support.