Gas Market
For much of Tuesday’s session, the NBP market looked poised to reverse Monday’s gains, with early trading weighed down by strong fundamentals. The Winter-25 contract dipped to an intra-day low of 85.09p/th, pressured by robust European gas storage levels now at 79.63% full and muted demand amid above-average wind generation in GB. However, prices rebounded in the afternoon following geopolitical developments. Reports of Israel’s targeted strike on Hamas leadership in Doha spurred a risk premium, driving Winter-25 up 2.87p to peak at 87.96p/th before it settled at 87.12p/th, a day-on-day decline of just 0.55p. Other traded contracts mirrored the winter contract’s intraday volatility, ultimately closing marginally lower versus Monday’s settlement.
Power Market
GB Baseload power contracts moved in line with NBP gas, settling marginally lower on Tuesday. Near-curve prices came under pressure from both a bearish gas market and forecasts for above-average wind generation. Further downside was seen as UKA allowances traded at a discount through much of the session, weighing on the Winter-25 power contract, which dipped intra-day. However, prices later rebounded in tandem with the wider energy complex following geopolitical developments in the Middle East.
EUA carbon allowances settled lower on Tuesday with a sell off being triggered by Monday’s large-scale gains.
Oil Market
Crude prices extended gains on Tuesday, supported by renewed geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The front-month Brent contract settled at $66.39/bbl, up $0.37 on the day, consolidating Monday’s $0.52 increase. Prices briefly spiked by nearly 2% in the immediate aftermath of Israel’s targeted strike on Hamas leadership in Doha, before easing as both the US and Qatar signalled no appetite for further escalation. This tempered market fears of supply disruption, reducing the geopolitical risk premium. The day-on-day gain of 0.56% reflects a more measured market response, significantly lower than the initial surge following the news.
Markets This Morning
NBP Gas contracts have continued on higher this morning with the market still processing the latest escalation in the Middle East, coupled with reports overnight of an incursion into Polish air space by Russian drones. As a result, the winter gas contract and its constituent months are all trading circa 0.60p/th higher than Wednesday’s settlement. Oil prices are also trading higher in early trading following Israel’s widely condemned attack on Doha. Adding to the bullishness on crude prices was President’s Trumps call for the EU to impose further tariffs on buyers of Russian gas. Carbon prices are trading lower once again as the Dec-25 continues its retreat from Monday’s highs.
10 September 2025
