The NBP remained rangebound on Friday, with curve contracts retracing a portion of the previous days’ losses by the close.

Gas Market

The NBP remained rangebound on Friday, with curve contracts retracing a portion of the previous days’ losses by the close. Market fundamentals remained largely unchanged, with European storage stocks standing at a healthy 79.87% while the supply picture is currently stable. The EU reaffirmed its intention to phase out Russian oil and gas imports by 2028, but this had little impact on market direction. The front month contract gained 0.94p to close the week at 80.16p per therm. On the prompt, the Day ahead contract shrugged off potential weakness from forecasts of rising temperatures and declining gas-for-power demand to close at a 0.95p premium to its previous settlement. Gains on the Spot were more pronounced, driven by numerous unplanned outages at Norwegian facilities. The Within day contract increased by 1.55p day-on-day to close at 80.23p per therm.

Power Market

Upward movements on the NBP gas curve filtered into gains across most GB Baseload contracts on Friday. The front month contract for October 25 delivery edged up by £0.83/MWh to close at £75.13/MWh. Low demand and well-above-average wind power production drove significant losses on the Day ahead contract, which fell by 57.5% to close the session at $18.03/MWh. European carbon markets edged up on Friday, following the direction of the wider energy complex. European Allowances for the Dec 25 contract increased by €0.32 to close the session at €75.70 a tonne. UK Allowances posted similar losses, with Dec 25 shedding £0.30 a tonne by the close.

Oil Market

Heightened geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine pushed oil prices higher on Friday. A drone attack on Russia’s northwestern port of Primorsk led to the suspension of oil loading operations, which aggravated concerns over potential supply disruptions. Markets were also tentative to potential further sanctions or tariffs from the Trump administration aimed at reducing the use of Russian crude by India and China. Gains were hampered however by less than positive economic indicators from the U.S. that suggested weaker demand. The front month Brent contract ended the week at $66.99 a barrel, up 62 cents day-on-day. The WTI contract for October delivery posted a 32 cents gain by the close to finish at $62.69 a barrel.

Markets this morning

So far this morning the GB system is coping well despite ongoing maintenance outages that will curtail Langeled flows until later in the week. Wind output remains high, with renewables making up 70% of generation in the power stack. The front month contract has edged down from Friday’s close by 1.60p to last transact at 78.56p per therm, while Winter 25 has dropped 1.20p so far. Oil prices continue to edge up this morning as markets assess the impact of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. The front month Brent contract last went through at $67.22, up 23 cents day-on-day.