NBP curve contracts eased off on Friday afternoon after initially starting the session in positive territory.

Gas Market

NBP curve contracts eased off on Friday afternoon after initially starting the session in positive territory. European storage levels were sitting at a comfortable 81.1% as the winter period approaches, allowing the near months to shed an average of 1.26p per therm day-on-day. The Winter 25 contract posted a 1.22p loss to end the week at 86.01p per therm. The Spot market also fell back on Friday, with the GB system remaining well supplied throughout the session, allowing the Within day contract to fall by 2.43p per therm day-on-day. A forecasted drop in temperatures from this week did little to support the prompt market, with contracts instead seeking direction from the bearish fundamentals of stable gas-for-power demand and higher Norwegian flows. The Day ahead contract posted a 1.45p loss to close the week at 79.60p per therm.  

Power Market

Movement across the GB Baseload near curve followed that of the NBP gas market on Friday, with the front month contract shedding £1.20/MWh to close the week at £75.70/MWh. Further out, losses were more muted with Q4 25 closing at a £0.75/MWh discount to its previous close. Despite a downward revision to temperature forecasts for this week as well as lower wind levels, the Day ahead contract posted a modest loss of £0.49/MWh day-on-day. European carbon markets were flat on Friday amid differing interpretations of technical signals. European Allowances for Dec 25 delivery gained just €0.05 day-on-day to close at €77.53 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Oil markets moved lower on Friday as weak economic indicators from the U.S. drove fuel demand fears. Despite the U.S. Federal Reserve announcing the first rate cut of the year last week, markets did not respond positively to the news. Reports that U.S. distillate stockpiles had risen by 4 million barrels against an expected 1 million barrels increased oversupply fears and compounded the downside. The front month Brent contract for November delivery fell by 76 cents day-on-day to close the session at $66.68 a barrel. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for October delivery shed 89 cents to end the week at $62.68 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

The NBP market is relatively flat this morning, with the front month contract up by just 0.05p on Friday’s close so far. The GB system is currently well oversupplied due to a ramp up in flows via the Vesterled pipeline as well as the easing of maintenance at the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS). The strong supply flows will help to mitigate the impact of plummeting wind generation levels, which are forecast at below normal throughout this week. Oil prices are similarly flat this morning, with a strong supply outlook and economic concerns outweighing rising geopolitical tensions in Europe and the Middle East. The front month Brent contract last went through at $66.75 a barrel, up just 7 cents so far.