Gas Market
NBP contracts remained rangebound on Thursday, with only modest shifts in fundamentals. The October front month rose 1.57p to 81.06p/therm, reversing the previous session’s losses, while Winter-25 gained 1.25p to 86.15p/therm. The day-ahead advanced 1.15p (1.47%) to 79.50p/therm as weaker wind forecasts lifted gas-for-power demand by around 6mcm. Norwegian flows into the UK were slightly reduced, with maintenance at the Karsto facility now extended until 5 October, adding mild supply pressure. Broader market sentiment remains cautious, with attention turning to the EU’s forthcoming sanctions package, which proposes to end Russian LNG imports by 2026, a year earlier than previously planned.
Power Market
Most GB Baseload contracts tracked the strength in gas, though upside was tempered by weakness in carbon markets. The October front month closed £0.50 higher at £75.65/MWh, while the day-ahead rose £0.45 (0.55%) to £82.25/MWh. Below-average wind generation lent some additional support, with output expected to remain subdued into next week.
EU carbon prices slumped on Thursday as the reaction to the September options expiry was followed by one of the weakest auctions in the last four years, triggering a heavy sell-off that pushed levels down towards key technical support. The Dec-25 EUA contract settled 0.58% lower on the day at €75.60/tonne while the front December UKA settled down 1.9% at £55.7/tonne
Oil Market
Oil prices steadied on Thursday after reaching a seven-week high in the previous session, supported by Russia’s move to curb fuel exports. Front-month Brent crude settled 11c higher at $69.42/bbl. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak confirmed that Moscow will introduce a partial ban on diesel exports until year-end and extend its existing ban on gasoline exports, following a series of Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries. Wednesday’s rally had already been driven by a surprise draw in U.S. crude inventories and heightened concerns over supply risks. Gains were limited, however, as stronger-than-expected U.S. GDP growth of 3.8% last quarter tempered expectations of imminent Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. BP said on Thursday it expects global oil demand to grow until 2030, five years later than its forecast a year ago, pointing to slowed efforts to increase energy efficiency and reduce global carbon emissions.
Markets This Morning
Gas prices posted minor gains this morning, with near-curve contracts up around 0.2p/th. Prompt activity has been muted, though gas-for-power demand is forecast to rise sharply by 22mcm/d to 54mcm/d, driven by very low wind generation expected next week. Norwegian imports to the UK are down 18mcm/d, with flows via Vesterled halted. Oil prices also edged higher on Friday, leaving Brent on track for a weekly gain of more than 4%. Ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure have prompted Moscow to tighten fuel export restrictions and raised the risk of crude output cuts. Front-month Brent is last seen 10c firmer at $69.52/bbl.
26 September 2025
