Gas Market
NBP forward contracts dipped in early trading on Thursday before recovering later in the session, with Nov-25 closing 0.25p higher at 80.26p/therm. The system remains comfortably supplied, supported by EU storage at 82.6% and increased LNG availability, with total European sendout set to rise by 500 GWh/d to 2,400 GWh/d as Dunkerque boosts flows following strike action. Weaker Chinese demand continues to redirect LNG cargoes towards Europe, with five deliveries expected to reach the UK over the next month. On the prompt, NBP day-ahead fell sharply, down 7.1p (-9%) to 68.15p/therm, pressured by strong UK wind output peaking at 18.1 GW and higher Norwegian imports, as Langeled ramped up by 16 mcm/d to 68 mcm/d with the impact of Troll maintenance easing.
Power Market
GB Baseload power tracked the gas market on Thursday, with the sharpest moves seen on the prompt. The GB baseload day-ahead contract dropped 30.2% to £52.50/MWh, weighed down by strong UK wind generation, which is forecast to remain elevated through the weekend at an average of 16.9 GW, well above seasonal norms. Forward contracts closed marginally higher after an afternoon rally, supported by gains in carbon markets.
Carbon prices firmed, with a burst of buying activity driving EUAs up 1.1% as the 2025 contract settled at €77.33/tonne, nearing late-September highs. UKAs posted their largest daily increase since mid-July, climbing 3.1% to £55.95/tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices extended their losing streak on Thursday, falling for a fourth consecutive session and settling at their lowest level in four months. Front-month Brent crude dropped $1.24, or 1.9%, to $64.11/bbl, the weakest close since 2 June. The slide was driven by renewed concerns over oversupply ahead of this weekend’s OPEC+ meeting, with reports suggesting the group may raise production by as much as 500,000 barrels per day in November, triple October’s increase, as Saudi Arabia pushes to regain market share. Losses were tempered by news that the United States will provide Ukraine with intelligence support for long-range strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, fuelling worries of potential disruption to Russian oil supply.
Markets this morning
NBP near-curve prices opened firmer on Friday, up an average of 0.43p, after Russia launched a large-scale overnight drone and missile assault on Ukrainian regions, heavily targeting energy infrastructure. Several gas facilities in the Poltava region, home to much of Ukraine’s production, were forced to suspend operations. Carbon prices extended Wednesday’s late rally, with the benchmark EUA Dec-25 climbing €1.82 to €79.26/tonne. Oil also recovered modestly, with front-month Brent up 81c (1%) at $64.92/bbl after a fire at one of the largest refineries on the U.S. West Coast, though oversupply concerns are expected to keep downward pressure on sentiment through the day.
03 October 2025
