NBP curve contracts traded within a tight range on Tuesday

Gas Market

NBP gas contracts consolidated Monday’s gains, with prices moving largely sideways on Tuesday. Trading remained within narrow ranges, with intra-day spreads not exceeding 1.6p across actively traded contracts. The front summer contract, Summer-26, traded between 78.31p/th and 79.26p/th, settling at 78.60p/th. Despite the recent rally and subsequent consolidation, prices remain within 4% of recent lows. Behind the narrow-traded range was mixed fundamentals. Prices found some support from lower wind generation, which lifted gas-for-power demand, and from cooler weather forecasts for the week ahead. However, gains were capped by an uptick in LNG supply, with five cargoes expected to berth at UK terminals in the coming weeks, compared with just two arrivals across all of September. The additional supply is expected to boost send-out rates in line with rising seasonal demand.

Power Market

A lacklustre NBP gas market was mirrored in GB Baseload power futures, where prices traded sideways within narrow ranges. The front summer contract, Summer-26, edged up £0.08/MWh to £73.65/MWh, while the Q1-26 contract slipped £0.15/MWh to £86.38/MWh. On the prompt, prices strengthened, with the Day-Ahead contract settling at £91.50/MWh, up nearly 5%. The rise was driven by lower-than-expected wind generation, which remains below seasonal norms, lifting gas-for-power demand and tightening near-term system margins.   After reaching a 10-month high on Friday, the Dec-25 EUA carbon contract extended its gradual decline on Tuesday, falling €0.58 to settle at €78.17/tonne. The pullback was largely attributed to profit-taking following last week’s rally.

Oil Market

Brent crude front month remained flat day on day, settling 2 cents lower at $65.45/bbl as the market continued to digest OPEC+’s smaller-than-expected output increase for November. The group’s cautious stance reflects concerns about adding supply amid forecasts for a significant global crude surplus through Q4 2025 and into 2026. Offsetting some of those surplus worries is China’s continued stockpiling of strategic reserves. According to Chinese news reports and company statements, state-owned oil firms plan to add about 169 million barrels of storage capacity across 11 sites by the end of 2026. Data from S&P Global Commodity Insights estimates that China has been stockpiling roughly 530,000 bpd so far in 2025, absorbing a substantial portion of the anticipated global oversupply.

Markets this morning

Near curve gas contracts have shed almost a penny in early trading as news of an issue with Qatari GPS systems that was impacting on maritime navigation systems was being rectified. Restrictions on ships, including LNG cargos, leaving Qatari ports have been reduced with restriction now only applying to nighttime navigation. As a result, gas prices are cautiously falling as the uncertainty of an interruption to Qatari LNG shipments is diminishing. Oil prices are higher in early trading, last exchanging hands at $66.25/bbl as the market continues to weigh up the impact of the restrained OPEC+ production increases.