Gas Market
NBP curve products edged lower on Wednesday on the back of news that previous restrictions on LNG cargoes leaving Qatari ports had been lifted. The restrictions, that were linked to an issue with Qatari GPS systems that disrupted maritime navigation, were resolved to the extent that they would only apply to nighttime navigation. Considering the U.K.’s reliance on LNG, curve prices responded by falling back, with the front month contract shedding 1.91p to close at 83.64p per therm. Above normal temperatures forecast for the rest of the week weighed on the prompt market, although losses were capped by strong demand from storage injections. The Day ahead contract fell by 3.00p to end the day at 83.00p per therm. The Spot market was also in decline, with an oversupplied GB system allowing the Within day contract to shed 2.70p day-on-day to settle at 83.20p per therm.
Power Market
GB Baseload future contracts tracked the downside exhibited by the NBP gas curve on Wednesday. The front month contract shed £2.13/MWh, or 2.5%, day-on-day to settle at £83.70/MWh. Meanwhile, the prompt market was also in negative territory as warmer-than-expected temperatures kept a cap on upside potential from below-average wind generation levels. The Day ahead contract posted a day-on-day loss of 8.05% to close out the session at £84.00/MWh.
A growing expectation of tighter supply levels next year supported European carbon markets on Wednesday. The Dec-25 EUA carbon contract posted a €1.01 premium on its previous close to settle at €79.18 a tonne. Meanwhile, UK Allowances felt the pull of weaker gas and electricity prices, with the Dec-25 contract falling by £0.39 to close at £55.11 a tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices traded in positive territory on Wednesday, supported by growing U.S. oil consumption levels as well as a lack of progress on a Russia-Ukraine peace deal. The continuation of the war in Ukraine will result in sanctions on Russian oil remaining in place, limiting global supply levels. This, coupled with the recent news that OPEC+ are to increase output next month to a lesser extent than previously expected, drove up supply concerns. Upside was mitigated however by the fact that Russian oil production, despite sanctions, was nearing its OPEC+ quota. The front month Brent contract gained 80 cents day-on-day to close the session at $66.25 a barrel. Meanwhile, the WTI contract for November delivery posted an 82 cent gain to settle at $62.55 a barrel.
Markets this morning
Yesterday’s downside on the NBP has continued into this morning, with unchanged fundamentals suggesting that the market will remain stable. The front month contract last went through at 82.97p per therm, a 0.67p discount to Wednesday’s close. The prompt market is also in negative territory despite slowly declining temperatures and a volatile outlook for wind generation. The Day ahead contract has so far shed 1.00p since yesterday’s settlement, while a long GB system has allowed the Within day contract to shed 0.70p day-on-day. Crude oil prices are little changed so far as markets await further details of a potential ceasefire in Gaza that could ease geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The front month Brent contract last went through at $66.51 a barrel, up 26 cents day-on-day.
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09 October 2025
