NBP curve products edged lower on Thursday after the Gaza ceasefire was announced, which eased geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the region.

Gas Market

NBP curve products extended the previous days’ losses on Thursday, with the near months shedding an average of 0.65p per therm day-on-day. An easing of geopolitical tensions in light of the Gaza ceasefire deal as well as stable fundamentals weighed on contracts. National Gas released its 2025 winter outlook yesterday, which suggested winter gas demand could be 3.0% lower year-on-year due to expectations of higher of wind generation, further exacerbating the downside potential. The front month contract posted a 0.67p loss to end the session at 82.97p per therm, within 3.7% of the recent 18-month lows. The prompt market also exhibited moderate downside despite an uncertain outlook for wind output and strong demand from storage injections. The Day ahead contract shed 0.55p to end the session at 82.45p per therm.

Power Market

Following losses observed across the NBP market, GB baseload contracts were also trading in negative territory on Thursday, albeit to a lesser extent than the day prior. The front month shed £0.20/MWh to settle at £83.50/MWh, while the Q1 26 contract posted a £0.15/MWh day-on-day loss. In contrast, the prompt moved up, supported by lower wind output for the remainder of the week. Day ahead gained £2.25/MWh day-on-day to settle at £86.25/MWh. European carbon prices fluctuated within a narrow range on Thursday, seemingly unsure as to which direction to take. Ultimately, prices ended the session flat, with the Dec-25 European Allowances contract gaining just €0.11 by the close to settle at €79.29 a tonne.

Oil Market

After opening the session in positive territory, crude oil prices edged down before the close on Thursday after a Gaza ceasefire deal was announced. Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas signed an agreement on Thursday to cease fighting and free Israeli hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. These actions marked the first phase in U.S. President Donald Trump’s plan to end the war. The deal holds the potential to ease geopolitical tensions and uncertainty in the region which weighed on contracts. The front month Brent contract shed $1.03 day-on-day to end the session at $65.22 a barrel. The WTI contract for November delivery made similar losses to fall by $1.04 to close the day at $61.51 a barrel.

Markets this morning

Today’s session has once again kicked off in negative territory, with the front month contract last going through at a 0.99p discount to its previous close. Further out, losses continue, albeit to a lesser extent, with the Summer 26 contract most recently trading at 77.15p per therm, down 0.19p. The prompt market is also exhibiting downside, with the Day ahead contract going through at 82.00p per therm, a 0.45p decline on yesterday’s close. Crude oil markets are also down day-on-day as risk premium continues to fade in light of the Gaza ceasefire. The front month Brent contract last went through at $64.91 a barrel, down 31 cents day-on-day. Find out more about our Commercial Energy Services. Read more carbon market news in our Insights section. Learn how Kore Energy can help you to develop a sustainable energy management system.