Energy markets mixed as Gas prices rises while Brent Crude declines as U.S.–China tensions weigh on sentiment

Gas Market

NBP gas prices edged higher on Tuesday, with the front-month November contract rising 1.08p to settle at 82.29p/therm, remaining within the recent 80–85p/therm trading range. Market fundamentals were little changed, with steady Norwegian and LNG supply and limited shifts in demand forecasts. Prompt prices also firmed, as the day-ahead gained 1.25p to close at 80.80p/therm, supported by very low wind generation despite otherwise stable system conditions. LNG arrivals continue to increase across both the UK and Europe, while Russia has expanded sanctioned LNG exports to China from its Arctic 2 facility, slightly easing competition for cargoes between Europe and Asia.

Power Market

GB baseload power prices were mixed on Tuesday, with near-curve contracts following gas markets higher while longer-dated contracts eased slightly. The front month gained £0.92 to £81.63/MWh, and the day-ahead rose 1.02% to £99.50/MWh amid forecasts for well below-average wind generation through the rest of the week. Further along the curve, Summer-26 edged 10p lower to £71.10/MWh, reflecting broader weakness in forward markets. European carbon prices extended their recent decline, falling to an eight-session low as macroeconomic uncertainty weighed on sentiment and prompted some liquidation of speculative positions. The benchmark Dec-25 EUA dropped €1.01 to €76.88/t, leaving prices down 4.4% since hitting a ten-month high of €80.37 last Friday.

Oil Market

Oil prices fell on Tuesday, with Brent crude slipping 93 cents, or 1.5%, to settle at $62.39/bbl. The decline followed warnings from the International Energy Agency of a potential 4 million barrels per day supply surplus in 2026 as OPEC+ members and rival producers continue to ramp up output amid sluggish demand growth. Sentiment was further weighed by renewed trade tensions between the U.S. and China after Beijing imposed sanctions on five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, prompting both nations to announce additional port fees on ocean shipping firms. Traders now turn their attention to a planned meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea later this month for potential signs of easing tensions.

Markets this morning

NBP gas prices have retraced Tuesday’s gains, with the front-month November contract down 1.08p at 80.21p/therm this morning. Market fundamentals remain stable, with little change in demand forecasts and continued strong LNG supply. Oil prices also eased, extending losses as investors weighed the IEA’s warning of a potential 2026 supply surplus alongside ongoing U.S.–China trade tensions that could dampen demand. Brent crude was last down 20c at $62.18/bbl.