Gas Market
On Wednesday, NBP curve products shook off much of Tuesday’s gains, retreating into negative territory once again. Fundamentals remained largely unchanged amid strong Norwegian pipeline flows and healthy LNG supply, while demand levels were also stable. Having reached an intra-day low of 80.05p, the November 25 contract settled a touch higher at 80.96p per therm, down 0.33p day-on-day. Sideways gas-for-power demand and unchanged weather forecasts for the rest of the week fed into losses on the prompt, with the Day ahead contract shedding 0.38p day-on-day to end the session at 80.53p per therm. Despite the GB system being well supplied on the day, the Within day contract displayed a modest gain by the close, to settle at 81.25p per therm.
Power Market
GB Baseload curve products made gains on Wednesday, in contrast to the downside exhibited on the NBP gas market. On the back of strong carbon gains, the front month November 25 contract increased by £0.88/MWh day-on-day to close at £82.50/MWh. Higher wind output forecast for the coming days weighed on the prompt market, with the Day ahead contract shedding 6.5% day-on-day to close the session at £93.50/MWh.
European carbon prices made a late surge higher on Wednesday amid improving macroeconomic sentiment. Dec-25 European Allowances gained €1.25 day-on-day to end the session at €78.13 a tonne. UK Allowances showed a similar trend, with the Dec-25 contract increasing by £0.95 a tonne day-on-day.
Oil Market
After trading in positive territory for much of the session, crude oil prices went on to reach fresh 5-month lows by the close on Wednesday amid forecasts of a supply surplus in 2026. Early gains were driven by the ongoing trade dispute between the U.S. and China that risks disruptions to global freight flows and holds the potential to impact major trade routes for oil. However, oversupply concerns reflected in global inventories remained a mitigating factor. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday that the global oil market could face a surplus next year of up to 4 million barrels per day, more than it previously forecast. The front month Brent contract fell by 48 cents day-on-day to close at $61.91 barrels per day.
Markets this morning
NBP prices have opened above their previous close this morning, with the front month contract last going through at 81.94p per therm, up 0.98p day-on-day. Fundamentals are once again largely unchanged, which should limit potential gains as the session progresses. The GB system is well balanced so far today, which indicates limited upside on the Within day contract also. Crude oil prices are back in positive territory, after U.S. President Donald Trump said Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had pledged his country would stop buying oil from Russia, a move that could drain oil supplies elsewhere. The front month Brent contract last went through at a 44 cent premium to its previous close.
16 October 2025
