Gas Market
NBP gas prices eased on Friday, with forward contracts remaining rangebound amid steady supply and strong wind generation reducing gas-for-power demand. The front-month November contract fell 1.68p to 80.69p/therm on the day, down 1.54p or -1.87% from the previous week’s close. On the geopolitical front, a tense meeting between Presidents Trump and Zelenskyy did little to improve prospects for ending the war, with Trump warning that Putin would “destroy” Ukraine if it refused to withdraw from the Donbas region. Day-ahead prices also softened, closing at 79.50p/therm, down 2.00p from Thursday’s close. Across Europe, gas storage has shifted from injections to withdrawals, averaging 108.6 mcm/day last week compared with 52.7 mcm/day of injections the week previous, following a period of elevated gas-for-power demand amid low wind generation.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices declined on Friday, mirroring losses in the gas market. The front-month contract fell £1.25 to £83.00/MWh, while the day-ahead dropped 11.85% to £80.00/MWh as wind generation forecasts were revised 15% above seasonal norms from Monday. Further along the curve, movements were limited, with Summer-26 easing £0.63 to £71.43/MWh, ending the week 0.86% lower.
Carbon prices were little changed, with the Dec-25 EUA inching up 12c to €79.50/t after an early dip and partial recovery. The market struggled to build on its mid-week rally, ending the session just 0.1% lower overall.
Oil Market
Oil prices posted modest gains on Friday but remained on track for a weekly decline of nearly 3%, weighed down by renewed supply concerns. Brent crude rose 23 cents to $61.29/bbl, while WTI edged up 8 cents to $57.54/bbl, marking a third consecutive weekly loss. Traders weighed signs of easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China ahead of the next round of talks this week, with President Donald Trump expressing optimism that a deal could be reached, noting that further tariff increases on China were “not viable.” Gains were limited after the IEA warned of a growing global surplus and U.S. crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels, exceeding expectations. Sentiment also remained cautious as Trump and Putin agreed to meet again to discuss the conflict in Ukraine.
Markets this morning
NBP gas prices opened softer this morning, with near-curve contracts down an average of 0.33p/therm. Summer-26 is hovering near the 75p/therm mark, slipping 0.4p to 75.05p/therm. Market fundamentals remain stable, supported by steady gas-for-power demand and four LNG cargoes scheduled to arrive in the UK over the next two weeks, including one newly added shipment. Oil prices also weakened, with Brent down 32c at $60.97/bbl, as concerns over a global supply glut and renewed U.S.–China trade tensions weighed on sentiment and demand expectations.
20 October 2025
