Gas Market
NBP curve products extended last week’s losses on Monday with contracts reaching fresh intra-day 18-month lows. Although the market oscillated between negative and positive territory during the session, the front month contract reached an intra-day low of 79.75p per therm and went on to close at 80.30p per therm. Losses were similar further out, with the Summer 26 contract shedding 0.63p day-on-day to settle at 74.82p per therm. Domestic and gas-for-power demand levels remained stable, alongside an unchanged and healthy supply scenario. As a result, the Day ahead contract posted a day-on-day loss of 2.00p to settle at 77.50p per therm. An oversupplied GB system weighed on the Spot market, with the Within day contract falling by 1.80p to close the session at 77.70p per therm.
Power Market
GB baseload near month contracts followed the weakness seen across the NBP near curve on Monday. The November 25 contract fell by £0.95/MWh to settle at £82.05/MWh. Further out, losses were more muted, with the Summer 26 contract shedding just £0.13/MWh day-on-day. The prompt market was largely flat, with an upward revision to both temperatures and wind output levels limiting gains. The Day ahead contract posted an increase of just £0.08/MWh day-on-day.
European carbon prices shrugged off the downside exhibited across gas, power and oil markets on Monday, instead opting to close at an 8-month high. European Allowances for Dec-25 closed at €79.88 a tonne, up €0.38 day-on-day.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices hit fresh 5-month lows on Monday as trade tensions between the U.S. and China spurred oil demand concerns. The two top oil consumers and largest economies continue to antagonise each other with moves that could disrupt global freight flows and potentially reduce global economic output in the long-term. This is all suggesting a potential oil supply glut in 2026 which is weighing on prices. The front month Brent contract for December delivery shed 28 cents to close at $61.01 a barrel. Meanwhile, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for November delivery traded sideways having fallen by just 2 cents day-on-day to settle at $57.52 a barrel.
Markets this morning
NBP gas prices opened softer again this morning, with the November 25 contract hitting a low of 79.04p early on. Although prices have recovered somewhat, the NBP near curve remains in negative territory. Although activity on the prompt market is quiet so far, upside could be driven into prices by an expected increase in gas-for-power demand levels as well as lower Norwegian production levels from tomorrow. Crude oil markets are flat today as oversupply fears and the ongoing trade dispute between the US. and China continue to mitigate the upside potential. The front month Brent contract last went through at $61.07 a barrel, up just 6 cents from yesterday’s 5-month low.
21 October 2025
