The NBP Spot price settled 9.45p per therm lower on Tuesday as robust wind generation displaced gas fired units

Gas Market

A healthy gas system weighed on the Spot price yesterday as wind generation increased to displace gas fired units from the power stack.  The Within-day prices settled 9.45p lower yesterday as wind generation rose to 15.0GW, covering almost 45.05 of power demand on the day. Forecasts for cooler temperatures from the weekend left the remainder of the prompt flat while near curve contracts rose on buying activity following the recent declines. Some doubts around the meeting of Presidents Trump and Putin appeared yesterday which also added some upside. November settled 0.93p per therm up at 81.23p while the Summer-26 contract also added almost a penny and closed at 75.77p. Planned maintenance is due to start at several Norwegian plants over the coming days which may also have influenced the near curve yesterday.

Power Market

The gains witnessed on the near curve of the NBP were countered by lower carbon prices on the day which left GB baseload futures marginally higher day-on-day. The front month, November, settled just £0.08/MWh up at £82.13/MWh while the Summer-26 contract closed at £71.48/MWh, posting a gain of £0.17/MWh.  Wind generation is forecast lower for Tuesday which lifted the Day ahead but is expected to increase again going into the weekend. Carbon prices eased on Wednesday after a subdued day in the markets with no auctions to stir up prices. European allowances for contracts out to 2027 fell by 0.6% or 47 cent per tonne on average while UKAs declined by almost £1.00/ tonne or 1.7%.

Oil Market

The potential for a glut of crude oil in 2026 continued to weigh on the crude oil markets yesterday however Brent rebounded off its recent multi-month lows to settle at $61.32 a barrel. The International Energy Agency has forecast a surplus for next year, but this is not being reflected in the market as currently longer-term prices are higher than the near term which is referred to as a contango. Lower priced crude for immediate or near-term delivery would suggest that supplies are abundant now or demand is behind available supplies of crude oil. Trade tensions between China and the U.S. are also denting demand although President Trump is scheduled to meet with China’s Xi Jinping next week in South Korea.

Markets this morning

Prompt prices are ticking up this morning with the gas system running a minor deficit after gas demand increased to 212mcm due to reduced wind generation. The Day ahead product is 0.55p per therm up at 78.00p while the Spot is yet to get going. Early losses to near months on the NBP curve have been reversed for the most part with November the only month in negative territory at 80.95p on the last trade. The Summer-26 contract is 0.27p higher at 76.03p. Reports that the meeting between Trump and Putin has been postponed supported crude oil prices this morning.  Brent for December delivery is 92 cents up at $62.24 a barrel.