Gas Market
Gas prices strengthened on Thursday, supported by a broader rally in energy markets after the U.S. Treasury announced sanctions on major Russian oil companies, lifting sentiment across the complex. Near-curve NBP contracts rose an average of 2.56%, while the Summer-26 contract gained 1.52p (2.02%) to close at 77.16p/therm. Further bullish momentum came as the EU Council approved its 19th sanctions package against Russia, accelerating the bloc’s planned LNG ban to January 2027, a year earlier than initially proposed. The restrictions will phase out short-term contracts within six months, with long-term deals ending from 1 January 2027. The measure excludes pipeline gas and crude oil but added notable upward pressure to the forward curve. On the prompt, the NBP day-ahead settled 1.40p higher at 77.75p/therm, though gains were capped by strong LNG send-out and forecasts for above-average wind generation next week.
Power Market
GB Baseload power prices moved higher on Thursday, tracking gains across gas and the wider energy complex following renewed geopolitical tensions. The front-month November contract rose 85p to close at £81.40/MWh. On the prompt, however, prices moved sharply lower as forecasts pointed to a significant increase in wind generation for Friday and throughout next week, with the day-ahead contract plunging 39.35% to £47.00/MWh.
European carbon prices were mixed, oscillating between gains and losses before ending slightly lower. EUAs were pulled by volatile energy market movements after news that the U.S. would impose sanctions on Russian oil producers. The benchmark Dec-25 contract settled 55c down at €78.20/tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices surged on Thursday, climbing around 5% to a two-week high after the U.S. imposed sweeping sanctions on Russian energy giants Rosneft and Lukoil over Moscow’s war in Ukraine. Brent futures settled $3.40 higher at $65.99/bbl, up 5.4% on the day, the largest single-day gain since mid-June and the highest close since October 8th. The sanctions mark a sharp escalation in U.S. efforts to target Russia’s energy sector and could be significant enough to push the global oil market into deficit next year. The move has already prompted energy firms in China and India, Russia’s key buyers, to reconsider their import exposure to avoid potential exclusion from the Western banking system. India’s Reliance Industries, the country’s top private refiner and largest buyer of Russian crude, is reportedly preparing to scale back or suspend imports, including halting purchases under its long-term deal with Rosneft.
Markets this morning
Gas prices have opened softer this morning, with near-curve NBP contracts down an average of 1.11p/therm. The market is pausing to assess the impact of Thursday’s U.S. sanctions on Russian energy majors, while steady Norwegian flows and forecasts for above-normal wind generation next week continue to weigh on sentiment. On the prompt, colder weather could lend some support to demand, though gains are likely to be capped by strong LNG send-out and robust wind output. Oil prices are little changed, with the front-month Brent contract edging 9c lower to $65.91/bbl.
24 October 2025
