Gas Market
NBP gas futures drifted lower at the end of last week and into Monday, remaining confined to a narrow trading range as mild weather and strong LNG send-out maintained comfortable supply conditions. The Summer 26 contract fell 0.62p on Friday and a further 1.73p on Monday to settle at 74.81p/therm. On the prompt, robust wind generation weighed on demand, pushing the day-ahead contract 2.65p lower to 76.1p/therm, its weakest close since 3 October. An unplanned outage at Norway’s Oseberg field reduced flows, but overall Norwegian supply remained strong. The International Energy Agency’s Gas 2025 report, released on Monday, forecast an additional 300 billion cubic metres per year of LNG export capacity by 2030, led by new projects in the United States and Qatar, reinforcing expectations of ample global supply in the years ahead.
Power Market
GB baseload power prices extended losses from Friday into Monday, tracking weakness in the gas market. Although an outage at Oseberg curtailed Norwegian gas flows to the UK, steady LNG send-out and strong wind generation kept gas-for-power demand subdued. The Baseload front month fell £2.33 to £77.25/MWh, pressured by a weakening gas market and strong wind generation.
European carbon prices also slipped for a fifth consecutive session on Monday, touching an eight-day low amid ongoing selling pressure before recovering slightly into the close. The benchmark December 2025 EUA contract fell 66 cents to €77.74/tonne, as traders looked past upbeat U.S.–China trade news and focused instead on mild weather and soft energy market fundamentals.
Oil Market
Oil prices eased slightly on Monday, extending Friday’s muted session as expectations of higher OPEC output outweighed optimism over U.S.–China trade progress. Front-month Brent crude slipped 32 cents, or 0.5%, to $65.62/bbl, after edging down just 5 cents on Friday to $65.94/bbl. Reports suggest eight OPEC+ nations, led by Saudi Arabia, are backing a modest output increase for December as Saudi Arabia seeks to regain market share. The prospect of additional supply kept prices under pressure, despite U.S. sanctions on Russia and signs of easing trade tensions. The U.S. and China agreed on a framework for a trade deal over the weekend ahead of a meeting between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping on Thursday. The accord, reached at the ASEAN summit in Malaysia, would halt plans for 100% tariffs on Chinese imports set to take effect on 1 November, providing some relief to global markets.
Markets this morning
Gas prices firmed slightly this morning, with NBP near-curve contracts up around 0.71p/therm as cooler weather moves in. The UK system remains well supplied, though gas-for-power demand has risen to 40mcm/d, up 10mcm/d as recent strong winds ease and temperatures are set to fall into the coming week. Oil prices extended losses for a third consecutive session, with front-month Brent crude down 88 cents, or 2%, at $64.74/bbl as traders weigh the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil companies and the prospect of a fresh OPEC+ output increase.
28 October 2025
