Gas Market
Following two consecutive days of gains, the NBP wholesale gas market moved lower on Thursday. Losses were more pronounced on the near curve, while thin trading activity beyond Summer-26 resulted in only minor day-on-day movements. November, in its final day of trading, fell 2.79p/th to settle at 77.77p/th, marking the month 0.37p below October’s outturn of 78.14p/th. Further along the curve, declines were modest, remaining below 1p/th. On the prompt, the Day-Ahead contract dropped 4.30p/th, pressured by strong Norwegian gas flows. Above-average temperatures and higher wind generation continued to limit gas demand for both heating and power generation. Additional downward pressure came from the expected arrival of three LNG cargoes at UK terminals within the next week.
Power Market
The GB Baseload power contract for November traded sideways, despite the sell-off in the NBP gas market. The front-month power contract found support from firm UKA carbon prices, which rose by around 1%. Further along the curve, the influence of weaker gas prices was more apparent, with contracts out to Summer-26 settling below Wednesday’s assessments. On the prompt, Day-Ahead power fell by 34% as wind generation is expected to increase from Friday.
After a strong start to the day, carbon prices ended marginally lower, pressured by declining gas prices and rising coal prices. The shift in relative fuel costs pushed the more carbon-intensive coal further down the European power merit order.
Oil Market
Following Thursday’s shorter-than-expected meeting between U.S. President Trump and Chinese leader Xi in South Korea, crude oil prices held firm. The meeting resulted in the U.S. agreeing to reduce tariffs on China in exchange for Beijing resuming U.S. soybean purchases, a deal on rare earth minerals, and measures to curb the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. The agreement was viewed as positive for global economic activity, and together with Wednesday’s Federal Reserve interest rate cut, helped to support prices despite an oversupply outlook for 2026. The Brent front-month contract settled at $65.00/bbl as the market shrugged off broader supply concerns.
Markets this morning
NBP contracts have returned to decline this morning following a brief uptick at the open. The new front-month contract, December 2025, last traded at 80.96p/th, down 1% from Thursday’s settlement. Trading further along the curve remains lacklustre, with executed trades also slightly lower. Mild weather forecasts are capping gas demand and weighing on prices. Crude oil is also trading lower, on track for a third consecutive monthly decline, pressured by a strong US dollar and weak Chinese economic data, with factory activity contracting for a seventh consecutive month.
31 October 2025
