Gas Market
The NBP curve softened on Wednesday after an improvement in the forecasts for early November. The mild temperatures should counter the higher demand for power generation as wind is to ease for the remainder of the week. However, forecasts have been revised, and wind is now expected to increase from the weekend which should curb gas demand in the week ahead. LNG send out topped 46mcm yesterday meeting almost 25% of UK gas demand. More LNG deliveries are expected over the coming weeks and while the gas system operated with a healthy surplus early on, supplies were still a touch long as the end of the session approached. Prompt prices for the NBP eased by over a penny yesterday with the Spot closing at 76.53p. The front month, December, dipped to a low of 82.87p per therm before settling at 83.01p, down 2.02p day-on-day.
Power Market
Weaker gas and carbon prices fed into the GB baseload curve yesterday as near month contracts fell by an average of £1.70/MWh. The bullish run from earlier in the week receded with wind generation being revised higher for the week ahead while the mild temperatures should continue to suppress demand. The low wind generation expected on Thursday and Friday supported the Day ahead which settled at £87.34/MWh, the highest settlement for three-weeks.
European allowances eased on Wednesday after EU ministers reached an agreement for the bloc’s 2040 climate targets. Prices had risen by around 4.8% since last Friday but contracts switched tack yesterday leaving EUA contracts out to Dec-27 fall by around €0.86 per tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices continued to ease yesterday with concerns of a supply glut piling on pressure. The new Canadian Prime Minister, Mark Carney, presented his budget plan to the nation in which he signalled that Canada could bin its cap on oil and gas emissions and produce more oil for the market. This sent ripples of concerns through the market which is already beginning to show signs of being over supplied. Also weighing on crude oil prices yesterday was the latest report form the Energy Information Administration which showed U.S. crude oil reserves increased by 5.2m barrels last week which was more than anticipated. At the close, Brent settled at $63.52 a barrel, down 92 cents while WTI eased by 96 cents to $59.60 a barrel.
Markets this morning
The gas markets have opened lower this morning with near futures trading around a half a penny lower as the market continues to unwind the premium added on Monday and Tuesday. The December contract last exchanged at 82.20p per therm which is down 0.81p from last nights close. Prompt prices have also eased in early trading and the Day ahead product is down 0.88p so far. UK gas demand remains subdued with mild temperatures forecast and wind now expected to pick up next week. In the crude oil markets, prices have rebounded this morning with reports that the recent sanctions applied to Russia’s two largest oil companies are starting to impact supplies.
06 November 2025
