While movement across the NBP curve was once again largely flat, forecasts for cooler temperatures supported prompt gains on Wednesday.

Gas Market

Forecasts for cooler temperatures and an unexpected outage at a UK LNG facility supported the NBP prompt market on Wednesday. Temperatures are now on a falling trajectory with forecasts for below normal levels over the coming days supporting the Day ahead price, which increased by 3.60p per therm day-on-day. A trip at the South Hook LNG terminal which restricted flows fed some moderate upside into the Spot market, although an oversupplied system on the day limited gains. The Within day contract increased by just 0.15p to settle at 62.50p per therm. Movement was largely flat on the near curve, with upside from the prompt feeding into a gain of 0.19p on the front month contract. Further out, a portion of the previous days’ gains were unwound, with the Q1 26 contract shedding 0.19p to settle at 81.52p per therm.

Power Market

Gas and carbon gains continued to support GB Baseload curve products, however movement on Wednesday was mostly flat. While the front month contract displayed day-on-day gains of £0.50/MWh, further out the decline was more muted with Q1 26 increasing by just £0.10/MWh. Forecasts of lower wind output and cooler temperatures fed moderate upside into the prompt, with the Day ahead contract edging up by £0.99/MWh to close at £65.42/MWh. European carbon prices rallied to near 10-month highs on Wednesday as options trading appeared to drive some aggressive bids. European Allowances for Dec 25 increased by €1.30 to close at €81.94 a tonne. Upside across UK Allowances was more muted, with the Dec 25 contract gaining £0.65 day-on-day to close at £57.60 a tonne.

Oil Market

Growing concerns surrounding a potential supply glut next year fed into significant losses seen across crude oil markets on Wednesday. The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) announced that world oil supply would match demand in 2026 due to the wider OPEC+ group’s production increases. This marked a shift from its previous projections of a supply deficit, which exacerbated the downside on the day. Forecasts from the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual World Energy Outlook report that suggested oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050 did little to dampen the decline. The front month Brent contract for January delivery fell by 3.76% day-on-day to settle at $62.71 a barrel, its lowest close in 3 weeks.

Markets this morning

The bears remain in control of market direction this week, with NBP prices once again trading in negative territory this morning. The front month contract last went through at a fresh 18-month low of 80.32p per therm, a 0.93p decline on yesterday’s close. On the prompt, the Day ahead contract has built on yesterday’s gains, having last transacted at a 1.30p premium to its previous close. The outlook for tighter market conditions next week in the face of colder temperatures is providing the short-term upside. Crude oil prices are flat, with markets remaining tentative to forecasts of an oversupplied global oil market in 2026. The front month Brent contract last went through at $62.79 a barrel, an 8 cent increase on its’ previous close.