Gas Market
The NBP gas market remained weak on Thursday, with near curve contracts closing the session in negative territory for a fifth consecutive day. The possibility of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal remained the overarching driver of the weakness, while forecasts of a tighter supply scenario from next week mitigated the downside. An anticipated dip in LNG send out due to fewer scheduled cargo arrivals during the first week in December could result in a greater need for storage withdrawals, which caused the tighter outlook. On its final day as the front month contract, December 25 still shed 0.86p to settle at 75.67p per therm, its lowest close since February 2022. Mild and windy conditions forecasted for the rest of the week weighed on the prompt, with the Day ahead contract falling by 0.65p to close at 74.50p per therm. The Within day contract was also comfortable with further losses, shedding 1.00p to end the day at 75.25p per therm.
Power Market
The ongoing bearish sentiment exhibited by the NBP gas market weighed on the GB baseload curve on Thursday. Having ignored the NBP’s downside over the previous two sessions, the front month contract shed £1.33/MWh by the close to settle at £79.18/MWh. Meanwhile on the prompt, forecasts of milder temperatures and strong wind output led to losses, with the Day ahead contract declining by 12.1% day-on-day to close the session at £65.07/MWh.
European carbon allowances ignored the downside across gas and power markets on Thursday as strong buying turned early losses into gains. The Dec 25 contract increased by €0.64 to close at €82.18 a tonne. In contrast UK allowances fell day-on-day, with the Dec 25 contract shedding £0.45 a tonne by the close.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices were little changed on Thursday, with trading volumes thin due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Markets also appeared reluctant to move back towards the one-month lows experienced on Tuesday due to scepticism around whether recent talks between U.S. and Ukrainian delegations could yield an agreement to end the war. The two sides have been trying to narrow gaps over President Donald Trump’s plan to end the conflict, however Kyiv remains wary of accepting a deal largely on Russian terms. Meanwhile, eight OPEC+ countries, which have been gradually raising their oil output levels in 2025, are expected to keep their policy to pause further increases in the first three months of 2026. The front month Brent contract gained just 21 cents day-on-day to end the session at $63.34 a barrel.
Markets this morning
The NBP near curve is this morning showing signs of an attempt to retrace a portion of the previous days’ losses. The new front month contract, January 26, has gained 0.93p per therm on last nights close. However, further out some contracts continue to fall, with Summer-26 last going through at 67.90p per, a loss of 0.61p on its previous settlement. With peace talks set to continue into next week, the market will remain tentative to any further developments regarding peace in Ukraine. The Day ahead contract is being supported by forecasts of a drop in temperatures from Monday, gaining 2.00p day-on-day so far. Crude oil prices are largely unchanged so far as markets closely watch the Russia-Ukraine peace developments.
28 November 2025
