Gas Market
UK gas prices opened marginally weaker on Tuesday, but the losses witnessed on Monday were not consolidated at the close. The front month traded briefly down to a low of 98.87p per therm but the contract rarely strayed far from the 100.00p mark despite reports of an increase in the number of tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The near curve ticked up late in session following Gassco’s revision of planned maintenance works through the third quarter. The Norwegian gas operator has published plans to increase maintenance at the Troll field and Karsto which could reduce available capacity through to September. The potential reduction in Norwegian capacity is still likely to less than was seen during the same quarter last year. The July contract settled 0.35p higher at 100.29p, while the Winter-26 product was flat at 106.07p.
Power Market
GB baseload futures settled lower on Tuesday with early pressure from the NBP curve and lower carbon weighing. The July contract settled £0.15/MWh down at £92.25/MWh and was the most heavily traded contract for the day and reacted to the late increase in the front of the NBP curve. Imports from France are down due to the heatwave across Europe which has curbed output from nuclear generators. With wind expected to drop off on Wednesday, the Day ahead product rose to 156.20/MWh, the highest level since January 2025. In the carbon markets, the Spot for European Allowances fell back below the €80.00 / tonne mark and settled at €79.81. UKAs declined by 4.4% or £2.66/ tonne on average with uncertainty around the UK Prime Minister possibly delaying the forum for market linking.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices eased on Tuesday as the markets watch increased shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz since last week’s memorandum of understanding was signed. Before the war, an average of 138 crossings per day were recorded while on Saturday there were 42 ships that moved through the Strait. Since the U.S. and Iran signed the agreement, a minimum of 172 ships have made the crossing. Many of the vessels passing have been Iranian flagged tankers and are free to move since the U.S. Navy blockade and sanctions have been lifted. Brent for August delivery fell by 82 cents to $77.08 a barrel while the West Texas Intermediate counterpart settled at $73.21, down 65 cents a barrel. Iran agreed to hold talks with representatives from Oman about the future navigation of the Strait of Hormuz while Marco Rubio, has said that any attempts to charge tolls for passing through the Strait was not part of the agreement and would be a violation of international law.
Markets this morning
Crude oil prices have continued to weaken this morning as increased shipping transiting the Strait of Hormuz following the peace agreement continues to provide comfort to the market. Brent last traded at $75.70 a barrel, down $1.38 on last night’s close. In the gas markets, July, the front month for the NBP is exchanging around a penny down at 99.07p per therm. There seems to be some resistance at this level as yesterday the contract traded briefly below this price point before recovering later in the afternoon. The Winter-26 contract is down a half a penny and contracts past this have yet to get off the blocks. On the prompt, only the Day ahead is active and is down a penny to 100.50p.
