Gas Market
Uncertainty over Iranian attendance at further peace talks kept gas markets elevated throughout Tuesday as the two-week ceasefire deadline approached. The U.S. ultimately extended the ceasefire, holding off further action against Iran until its leaders present a unified proposal, though the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted, leaving around 20% of global LNG and oil flows still disrupted. Front-month NBP settled at 105.12p/therm, up 3.81p on the day. Further support came from EU storage, which, despite above-average injection rates, remains 6.3% below year-ago levels. Prompt prices also pushed higher, compounded by reduced Norwegian flows through the Langeled pipeline following maintenance at the Troll gas field. NBP Day-ahead settled 5.50p higher at 106.5p/therm.
Power Market
Near-curve GB Baseload contracts moved higher on Tuesday, tracking gains at the NBP gas hub as geopolitical factors in the Middle East continue to keep gas prices elevated. The front month May-26 rose £3.60 higher on the day, settling at £88.10/MWh. In contrast, UK Day-ahead power shed value on Tuesday, falling 2.19% to £78.15/MWh as higher wind generation forecasts pressure prompt prices.
Dec-26 EUAs slipped to a €75.70/t close on Tuesday, keeping prices in a tight €75-77/t consolidation range. Energy prices remain elevated on the Hormuz crisis, yet carbon continues to decouple from gas and is trading more in line with equities and macro sentiment. The recent surge has lifted prices comfortably away from the early-March lows in the high-60s, but the market has so far failed to establish a decisive break above the upper €77s resistance area.
Oil Market
Oil prices swung sharply on Tuesday, briefly topping $100 a barrel before pulling back after U.S. President Trump announced an extension of the ceasefire with Iran, conditional on Tehran submitting a unified proposal. Brent crude rose more than 5% to a session high of $101.15/bbl following reports that Vice President JD Vance had cancelled his trip to Islamabad for peace talks. Prices retreated after Trump confirmed the ceasefire would hold pending the conclusion of talks, though he noted the U.S. naval blockade of Iran remains in place. Front-month Brent settled $3 higher at $98.48/bbl. With concerns mounting over jet fuel supplies, the EU’s transport chief said the bloc would issue guidance to airlines on managing potential shortages stemming from the Iran conflict. Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles about 20% of global oil and LNG supplies, remained broadly halted with only three vessels passing through in the past 24 hours.
Markets this morning
UK gas prices climbed in early morning trading after reports emerged that three container ships were fired on in the Strait of Hormuz. Prices had initially eased as investors assessed the outlook for U.S.-Iran peace talks following the announced ceasefire extension, but those losses reversed sharply on the escalation news. Front-month NBP has rebounded from a session low of 103.8p/therm to last trade at 107.35p/therm. Brent crude followed a similar trajectory, pulling back to $98.16/bbl before recovering to $99.36/bbl, up $0.88 on the day. Supply of gas from Norway to Europe is set to rise today as maintenance at the Troll gas field eased. Total Norwegian export nominations are up by 60 million cubic metres/day to 303 mcm/d, easing system tightness.
