Gas Market
NBP gas contracts extended their gains across the curve amid prevailing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical risk remains heightened while peace talks between the U.S. and Iran remain deadlocked. Warmer temperatures have reduced gas demand across Europe, and further outages in Norwegian gas fields are causing supply to the UK to be lower than usual, with flows via Langeled down to 30mcm/d on Friday, less than half of total capacity. The front-month contract strengthened by 1.02p to settle at 111.91p/therm on Friday, capping a weekly gain of 14.8p since the previous week’s close. Demand is rising in the short term as injections into European storage ramp up while anticipated supply remains tight, with only one LNG cargo expected into the UK over the next two weeks, keeping the system reliant on pipeline flows. Prompt NBP saw a small price drop due to stable fundamentals, with the day-ahead shedding 0.45p across the trading day to settle at 110.50p/therm.
Power Market
GB Baseload prompt prices fell on Friday on forecasts of strong solar and rising wind generation into early may. Solar output in the UK hit a record 15.4GW on April 23, pushing the day-head down £4.75 to £97/MWh. Forward contracts tracked strength at the NBP hub, with the front Season Winter-26 gaining £2.85/MWh to £96.60/MWh.
European carbon allowances posted a €3.35 weekly decline despite ending Friday with a marginal gain, with the Dec-26 EUA settling at €74.90/tonne after a subdued week of trading. Near-term direction will hinge on ETS policy signals and geopolitical energy risk, with markets likely to remain cautious heading into the new week. The EUA-UKA spread narrowed sharply to around €16.7/tonne, its tightest level since mid-February, as UKA prices outperformed EUAs toward the end of the week.
Oil Market
Oil prices whipsawed in volatile trade on Friday, though both benchmarks posted strong weekly gains as traders weighed supply disruptions against the prospect of renewed U.S.-Iran peace talks. Front-month Brent crude settled at $105.33 a barrel, up 26 cents, or 0.3%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $1.45, or 1.5%, to settle at $94.40 a barrel. On the week, Brent surged roughly 16% and WTI gained nearly 13%. Prices climbed as much as 2% early in the session, reaching a session high of $107.48/bbl, after Iran released footage of commandos boarding a cargo ship in the Strait of Hormuz, stoking fears of renewed military escalation in the region. Gains faded, however, after reports emerged that Iran’s foreign minister was expected in Islamabad later Friday to discuss proposals for resuming peace talks with the U.S. negotiators Witkoff and Kushner, raising hopes that diplomatic progress could help ease supply concerns.
Markets this Morning
British and European wholesale gas prices edged higher Monday morning as hopes of reviving U.S.-Iran peace talks faded after Trump cancelled a planned visit to Islamabad by envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner over the weekend. The NBP front quarter Q3-26 is up 1.34p at 111.25p/therm on the news. The front month is currently trading down 0.61p at 111.3p/therm as Norwegian flows via the Langeled pipeline have been nominated 7mcm/d higher but remain constrained at 37mcm/d, with ongoing maintenance at Troll and Kollsnes keeping capacity offline until May 6. Oil prices have also moved higher, with Brent up $2.81 to $108.12/bbl as the diplomatic stalemate in the Middle East persists.
