Gas Market
UK wholesale gas contracts continued to ease cautiously in Thursday’s session, with the front-month July contract slipping 0.7%, while longer-dated contracts posted steeper declines. The Winter-26 contract fell by 1.54p to 102.03p/th as LNG tankers continued to transit the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns over disruptions to global supply. Further downward pressure came from reports that empty LNG vessels are returning to the region, signalling growing confidence that the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran will hold and that the Strait will remain open. Despite the recent decline, UK wholesale gas prices remain well above pre-conflict levels. In the week before the first U.S. strikes on Iran, the July-26 contract averaged 73.75p/th, leaving prices still more than 30% higher. By contrast, oil prices have now retraced most of their conflict-related gains and are trading close to pre-conflict levels.
Power Market
Thursday’s baseload trading saw GB power prices remain broadly rangebound as weaker NBP gas continued to weigh on the curve, while strength in the UKA market provided offsetting support. This push and pull between fuels and carbon left direction mixed across the curve, with near-term contracts edging lower on the day. Further out, 2027 deliveries firmed as carbon strength helped lift longer-dated prices. The front winter fell to £94.50/MWh, while Winter-27 rose to £78.50/MWh.
EUAs slipped 0.27% to €80.56/t after a mixed session, with early gains tracking broader macro sentiment reversed in the afternoon following reports of Market Stability Reserve reform proposals, including tighter intake thresholds and revised timelines. Prices briefly fell around €1.50/tonne before stabilising into the close as the market digested largely expected policy changes.
Oil Market
The front month Brent crude oil contract rose to $75.26/bbl on Thursday after a suspected attack on a cargo vessel near the Strait of Hormuz prompted the suspension of efforts to escort ships through the key waterway, reviving concerns over disruptions to global oil flows. The incident renewed uncertainty surrounding the durability of the recent U.S.-Iran ceasefire, despite shipping activity having recovered in recent days. The rebound followed Wednesday’s continued decline, when both Brent and WTI settled at their lowest levels since late February as crude shipments through the strait climbed to their highest since the conflict began, easing immediate supply concerns. With around one-fifth of global oil supply typically transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the latest security developments once again highlighted the market’s sensitivity to potential disruptions in the region.
Markets this morning
Crude oil has resumed its downward trend this morning despite yesterday’s attack on a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic continues to move through the waterway without disruption, easing immediate supply concerns and pushing prices $2.66/bbl lower. Further pressure has come from reports that Saudi Aramco has resumed crude loadings at Ras Tanura after a four-month hiatus, adding to expectations of healthier near-term supply. UK wholesale gas is also softer in early trade, though losses remain limited, with the front-month contract down just 0.06p/th.
