Significant losses across global financial markets on Monday fed into weakness across the NBP curve

Gas Market

After a relatively flat day of trading on Friday, the NBP exhibited more pronounced losses on Monday, with near months falling by an average of 2.41p per therm day on day. A significant sell-off and subsequent drop in global financial markets as well as weakness across the TTF fed into the decline on the NBP curve. Although further losses may have been stifled by the ongoing risk associated with the war in the Middle East as well as adverse weather in both the Gulf of Mexico and Japan and Korea, the NBP front month settled at 87.05p per therm, down 2.75p day on day. Downside on the prompt was even more pronounced as mild temperatures and strong wind levels allowed the Day ahead product to shed 5.00p day on day to close at 78.35p, while the Spot fell by 6.00p to finish at 78.05p per therm.  

Power Market

Prices across the GB Baseload market fell on Monday, with near curve products shedding an average of £1.70/MWh day on day. Both the near and far curve tracked losses seen across the NBP market, with September-24 falling by £2.65/MWh to settle at £74.35/MWh. Short-term contracts were driven down by forecasts for strong wind levels, with wind generation expected to be more than 20% above seasonal normal levels for the rest of this week and into next week. Carbon EUAs retraced some of the gains created last week as a sell-off across global financial markets and losses across European gas hubs pushed prices down. Dec-24 fell by €1.63 to settle at €68.88 a tonne. UK Allowances also shed value, with the Dec-24 contract closing at £38.36 a tonne, down £0.44 day on day.  

Oil Market

Weak growth in global fuel demand loomed large across crude oil markets on Monday as front month Brent closed at its lowest level since early January 2024. Global stock markets tumbled as investors continued a sell-off on the assumption that rapid interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve would be needed to drive U.S. economic growth and avoid a recession. This, coupled with continued evidence that demand from China is also stalling, fed into the weakness. Further losses were stemmed however by the ongoing fears of possible supply disruptions from a widening war in the Middle East. Brent for September-24 delivery closed at $76.30 a barrel, down $0.51 day on day, while the WTI front month shed $0.58 to close at $72.94 a barrel.