Gas Market
The majority of curve contracts across the NBP settled below their previous close on Friday, although late afternoon gains threatened to undo almost all of the earlier losses. Having traded as low as 93.96p per therm, the front month contract closed at 95.28p per therm, down 0.34p day-on-day. The Winter-24 contact fell by a modest 0.07p to close the week at 111.09p per therm. Lower than expected wind generation levels as well as a short system supported the Spot, with the Within day contract increasing by 0.65p day-on-day to close at 79.00p per therm. Day ahead also finished the day in positive territory, gaining 1.75p to settle at 79.50p per therm. The current prompt-front month spread will likely result in an increased level of storage injections which could feed into higher demand levels over the coming week.
Power Market
GB Baseload prices traded flat day-on-day with modest gains exhibited across much of the near and far curve. An uptick in carbon prices as well as mixed movements across the NBP provided direction which saw September-24 close out the week at £81.25/MWh, up £0.25/MWh day on day. The front winter contract also gained £0.25/MWh to settle at £95.50/MWh.
UK and European carbon prices inched higher on Friday, with modest buying activity outweighing active selling pressure. The Dec-24 EUA gained 17 cents to settle at €72.32 a tonne, while the UKA equivalent gained £0.47 to close at £40.89 a tonne.
Oil Market
Crude oil markets edged down on Friday, retracing the previous days’ gains to finish 3% lower week-on-week. A string of weak economic indicators from China for July outweighed the support from geopolitical risks, resulting in the downside. Data released last Thursday showed that China’s economy had significantly lost momentum, with new home prices falling at the fastest pace in nine years. As unemployment levels rise and industrial output slows, the outlook for oil demand from the world’s largest consumer appears meagre. Front month Brent finished the week at $79.68 a barrel, down $1.36 day-on-day, while the WTI contract for September-24 delivery settled down by $1.51 to close at $76.65 a barrel.
Markets this morning
A short system, muted renewables on the grid, as well as an expectation of cooler temperatures for the rest of the week appears to be lifting the prompt market this morning, with the Day ahead contract last trading at 87.00p per therm, up 7.50p on Friday’s close. Direction is mixed across the near and far curve. September-24 last went through at 96.40p, up over a penny day-on-day, while Winter-24 last traded 0.45p below Friday’s close at 110.64p per therm. Friday’s losses across crude oil markets has continued into this morning on renewed hopes of a ceasefire in the Middle East and ongoing concerns over the strength of China’s economy. Front month Brent last traded at $79.27 a barrel, down 41 cents day-on-day.
19 August 2024
