NBP prompt and curve contracts edged up on Friday, although the front month contract still settled 8.65% lower week-on-week

Gas Market

Thursday’s gains continued into Friday with increases seen across all NBP prompt and curve contracts. Despite the uspide, October-24 still finished 8.65% lower week-on-week, settling at 87.83p per therm on the day. Movement further out was more modest with Winter-24 and Winter-25 edging up by 0.36p and 0.10p per therm day-on-day respectively. Larger increases experienced by the prompt were driven by news that the scale of an outage at Norway’s Kollsnes facility was increased, as well as forecasts of cooler than normal temperatures. The Spot settled at 87.50p per therm, an increase of 1.45p on the previous close, while Day ahead posted a 1.95p gain to finish at 87.70p per therm.

Power Market

Direction was mixed across GB Baseload prices on Friday with contracts from November-24 and beyond largely trading flat day-on-day. The front month edged up £0.55/MWh to close at £74.30/MWh, driven by increases on the NBP gas hub. An unplanned outage on the 1GW IFA2 UK-France interconnector as well as forecasts for cooler temperatures created some volatility on the prompt, with Day ahead increasing by £6.21/MWh to close the week at £81.25/MWh. European carbon prices were supported by rising gas and electricity markets on Friday, although robust gains in the morning were largely wiped out before the close. EUAs for Dec-24 increased by €0.31 day-on-day to settle at €66.50 a tonne.

Oil Market

Crude oil prices ended Friday with a heavy weekly loss as demand concerns far outweighed risk of a delay to supply increases by OPEC+ producers. Front month Brent registered a 9.82% decline week-on-week to close the session at $71.06 a barrel, its lowest close since December 2021. Chinese and U.S. economic concerns, the diminishing ability of OPEC+ to influence the oil market, as well as the groups ample spare capacity, are all conspiring to encourage market weakness. With the assumption that Libyan oil export levels will likely return to normal soon, even further downside could be possible. Front month WTI showed similar weakness on the day, exhibiting an 8.00% week-on-week fall to end the week at $67.67 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

NBP activity on the curve has been limited so far this morning with direction mixed across traded contracts. October-24 last went through at 88.24p per therm, an increase of 0.41p on Friday’s close. Norwegian flows into the UK have dropped by 5mcm per day amid the increased volume of offline capacity at the Kollsnes facility. Cooler temperatures forecasted for the week will add to demand levels, however higher wind speeds and solar production levels should be enough to offset this. Crude oil prices have edged up from Friday’s multi-year lows on forecasts of a potential hurricane system off the U.S. Gulf Coast. Front month Brent last went through at $71.99 a barrel, up 93 cents day-on-day.