Gas Market
The strong presence of renewables in the power stack as well as increased pipeline imports from Norway encouraged the Spot market into negative territory on Friday. The Within day contract ended the session at 90.05p per therm, down 0.10p day-on-day. Further along the prompt however, forecasts of cooler temperatures for the week ahead limited the downside, with the Day ahead contract increasing by 0.50p to end the week at 91.20p per therm. Having started the day below the previous close, a late rally saw most NBP curve contracts settle higher day-on-day. Uncertainty surrounding Ukraine’s ability to secure a new gas transit deal when the existing contract with Gazprom expires at the end of the year fed support into contracts. October-24 expired at 91.66p per therm, up 0.25p day-on-day, having traded an average of 86.65p per therm over the month of September.
Power Market
Prompt contracts on the GB Baseload market were supported by news of an unplanned outage at the ElecLink interconnector between the UK and Belgium. Forecasts of average temperatures as well as above normal wind levels for the coming week limited gains. Further out, movements across the curve were somewhat mixed, although most contracts took direction from the upside on the NBP. The October-24 gained £1.00/MWh day-on-day to end the session at £76.50/MWh.
Having initially edged lower in the morning session, European carbon prices ended the session higher day-on-day, with the Dec-24 contract closing up by 30 cents to end the day at €66.25 a tonne. UKAs showed more weakness, with the Dec-24 contract posting a loss of £0.23 to settle at £37.27 a tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices settled slightly higher day-on-day on Friday as market fundamentals remained largely unchanged. Crude markets were somewhat unperturbed by the recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East, while Hurricane Helene provided some moderate upside, with about 25.00% of oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remaining offline ahead of the weekend. Expectations of increased output from Libya as well as the wider OPEC+ group capped gains, with the front month Brent contract falling by 3.37% week-on-week. Uncertainty surrounding the recent Chinese stimulus package and what impact it might have on fuel demand added further weight to the recent downside. Brent for November delivery ended the day at $71.98 a barrel, up 38 cents day-on-day. Front month WTI ended the session up by 51 cents, to settle at $68.18 a barrel.
Markets this morning
The NBP curve has continued Friday’s upward momentum this morning, with the new front month contract, November-24, last going through at 97.43p per therm, up by 1.03p so far. On the prompt, Day ahead was last observed at 92.83p per therm, an increase of 1.63p on Friday’s close. A slight drop in day-on-day Norwegian pipeline flows has led to a short GB system, no doubt feeding into the support on the prompt. Crude oil markets have risen slightly this morning, with Brent showing a little more interest in the escalating tensions in the Middle East and what impact it could have on potential supply disruptions. Front month Brent last went through at $72.41 a barrel, up 43 cents on the previous close.
30 September 2024
