The NBP curve traded sideways on Tuesday with fundamentals remaining little changed day-on-day.

Gas Market

Like most other markets, NBP contracts moved sideways on Tuesday as participants awaited the outcome of the U.S. presidential election. The December-24 contract edged up by 0.23p to close at 102.69p per therm. Prices are tentative to how tropical storm Rafael is progressing, which has the potential to track to the eastern Louisiana U.S. Gulf coast near the Plaquemines LNG facility. There are currently three LNG cargoes expected to arrive into the UK by the end of the week, bringing the total number of arrivals in the first nine days of the month to four. An undersupplied system provided support on the Spot market, with Within day increasing by 1.75p day-on-day to close the session at 103.25p per therm. Strong gas for power demand levels in the wake of low wind and solar production held up the prompt, with Day ahead posting a 1.10p gain to close at 102.15p per therm.  

Power Market

Modest gains across the NBP fed into increases on the GB Baseload curve on Tuesday. The Dec-24 contract increased by £0.03/MWh to end the session at £85.90/MWh. Further out, an uptick in UK carbon prices also provided support, with the Summer-25 contract posting a gain of £0.53/MWh to close at £75.13/MWh. Prompt contracts continue to be supported by low wind and solar production levels, with the Day ahead contract increasing by £2.37/MWh to end the day at £113.20/MWh. After starting the day little changed day-on-day, European carbon prices edged down, with the Dec-24 contract falling by €1.18 to close at € 64.24 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Oil prices traded within a narrow range on Tuesday ahead of what was expected to be an exceptionally close U.S presidential election. Otherwise, fundamentals remained largely unchanged day-on-day, with the risk premium from OPEC’s announcement over the weekend to push back a production hike by a month still providing support. Further upside was garnered from tropical storm Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico which is showing signs of strengthening into a hurricane which could impact oil output in the region. Front month Brent gained 45 cents day-on-day to settle at $75.53 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate for December delivery increased by 52 cents to close the day at $71.99 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

Markets are this morning digesting the likely outcome of the U.S presidential election, with NBP curve prices opening below their previous close. The front month last went through at 100.35p per therm, down 2.34p on Tuesday’s close, while the front season is similarly down by 2.56p. Although the Spot market is yet to trade, Day ahead is also trading in negative territory this morning despite gas for power demand levels remaining elevated due to weak wind and solar production. Unplanned outages continue to impact supply from the UKCS, with the GB system once again operating at a deficit. Crude oil prices have also opened lower on a stronger dollar due to the increasing likelihood of Donald Trump winning the U.S. presidency.