The news that Donald Trump had regained the White House fed into early morning losses across the wider energy complex on Wednesday.

Gas Market

The NBP Spot fell by 1.20p per therm day-on-day on Wednesday despite strong gas-fired power demand driven by low renewable production levels. An undersupplied system for much of the day also did little to stir upside. The Day ahead product posted a loss of 0.65p to settle at 101.50p per therm, with forecasts of cooler temperatures limiting losses. On the curve, decreases across the morning session were largely wiped out later in the afternoon, although most contracts still managed to post a day-on-day discount by the close. The initial losses were driven by downside across the wider energy complex in light of the news that Donald Trump had won the U.S. presidential election. Having traded a low of 98.53p per therm in the morning, the December-24 contract eventually settled at 101.84p per therm.  

Power Market

GB Baseload contracts tracked losses on the NBP on Wednesday, with near months averaging a loss of £0.95/MWh. The front month declined by £0.81/MWh to close the day at £85.10/MWh. Prompt contracts also softened, with the Day ahead product falling by 11.6% day-on-day despite persistently low wind and solar production levels. Temperatures for next week were also revised down, limiting losses for delivery across the remainder of the month. European carbon prices fell for the fifth time in the last six days on Wednesday as energy markets reacted to the election of Donald Trump, with an increase in selling also adding to the downside. The Dec-24 contract fell by €0.10 to close at €64.14 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Crude oil prices edged down on Wednesday after news reached the market of a win for Republican Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. The U.S. dollar strengthened on the result to trade at its highest level since September 2022, providing downside across commodity markets. One of the many other implications of a Trump presidency could be policies that further pressure the Chinese economy, weakening oil demand in the world’s top importing country, which also fed into the decline. Although other implications could result in more bullish pressure, such as sanctions on oil exporting countries such as Iran and Venezuela, front month Brent fell by 61 cents to settle at $74.92 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

NBP prompt and curve contracts have opened in positive territory this morning. High gas-for-power demand levels as well as forecasts of cooler temperatures are supporting the Day ahead contract which last traded at a 1.60p per therm premium to Wednesday’s close. The GB system is this morning oversupplied, with strong Norwegian exports and LNG send-out helping to balance. Crude oil prices are trading sideways this morning with numerous contradicting fundamentals at play after yesterday’s U.S. presidential outcome and the ongoing threat of output cuts due to Hurricane Rafael in the Gulf of Mexico. Front month Brent is currently trading 29 cents below yesterday’s close.