For the third consecutive day, most NBP contracts along the curve ended the session in negative territory on Friday.

Gas Market

Reports of a Russian amendment to payment options for European gas buyers which could signal an effort to maintain pipeline flows transiting through Ukraine after the current deal expires at the end the year added bearish pressure to most NBP curve contracts on Friday. The front month contract edged down by 0.13p day-on-day to end the session in negative territory for the third consecutive day. Robust LNG sendout due to strong LNG cargo arrivals and solid Norwegian flows with minimal maintenance disruptions provided downside on the Spot and prompt. The Within day contract fell by 0.50p to settle at 115.00p per therm, while the Day ahead contract closed the week at 114.60p per therm, a 0.30p discount to its previous close.  

Power Market

A downward revision to wind production, with levels forecast to be well below average for the coming days lifted the GB Baseload prompt on Friday. The Day ahead contract increased by 13.5% day-on-day to close at £92.68/MWh. In contrast, the near months fell back in line with the NBP gas curve, with the front month contract posting a £0.25/MWh loss to end the session at £98.50/MWh. March-25 made the biggest day-on-day loss to close down by £0.48/MWh. After initially tracking down, European carbon prices rebounded in a late rally, with the Dec-24 EUA contract settling at €68.60 a tonne, down €1.33 day-on-day. In contrast, UKAs eased, with Dec-24 easing by £0.62 a tonne.  

Oil Market

Crude oil prices eased for the third day in a row on Friday, ending the session 2.5% lower week-on-week. A projected supply surplus next year due to weak demand, despite an OPEC+ decision to delay output hikes and extend deep production cuts to the end of 2026, played into the downside. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has estimated 2025 global oil supply will likely exceed demand by an average of up to 1.15 million barrels per day. Brent for February delivery fell by 97 cents day-on-day to settle at $71.12 a barrel, its lowest level in 3 weeks. The January WTI contract posted a $1.10 loss to end the week at $67.20 a barrel.    

Markets this morning

In a continuation of last weeks’ downward trend, the NBP curve has opened in negative territory, with the front month last going through at 113.48p per therm, down 2.39p on Friday’s close. Fresh calls by President-elect Donald Trump for an immediate ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia over the weekend may be playing into the downside this morning. Although activity on the prompt is yet to get going, a fall in temperatures over the coming days as well as increased gas-for-power demand levels could support short-term contracts. Crude oil prices have edged up this morning after the overthrow of Syria’s Assad fuelled regional uncertainty. Front month Brent has climbed by 66 cents so far.