NBP prices had a volatile start to the week on Monday, with concerns surrounding system tightness and an unplanned Norwegian outage supporting the market

Gas Market NBP prices had a volatile start to the week on Monday, with near curve contacts trading across a wide spread after opening below their previous close. The February-25 contract reached an intra-day low of 116.90p per therm early on, but went on to settle at 121.35p per therm, a 3.04p premium to its previous close. System tightness amid strong gas-for-power demand and an ongoing unplanned outage at the Norwegian Gullfaks field created some concerns around U.K. supply which provided the price support. In contrast, the NBP’s premium to other northwest European hubs as well as Asian markets should make the U.K. the preferred destination for Norwegian gas flows and LNG deliveries. The Spot market was supported by the undersupplied system, with the Within Day contract making the biggest gain of the day, increasing by 5.68p to close the session at 129.48p per therm.   Power Market A low presence of renewables in the power stack as well as a downward revision to wind power production levels for the rest of the week supported GB baseload prompt prices, with the Day ahead product increasing by 12.8% day-on-day to close at £179.39/MWh, its highest level since mid-December. The near curve was supported by the volatility across the NBP gas market, with the front three months gaining an average of £2.13/MWh on their previous close. European carbon prices edged sideways on Monday, with liquidity low amid a lack of U.S. participation due to a public holiday there. EUA’s for December 2025 increased by just 26 cents day-on-day to close out the session at €79.97 a tonne.     Oil Market Crude oil prices edged down on Monday as the market awaited the inauguration of the incoming U.S. President and what impact Trump’s first few days in office could have on energy markets. Expectations that Trump could sign executive orders deregulating LNG exports as well as his previous statements regarding his ability to end the Russia-Ukraine war weighed on the market. Easing tensions in the Middle East added further downside, with the Israel and Hamas ceasefire coming into effect on Sunday after 15-months of war. Front month Brent fell by 64 cents day-on-day, but stayed above $80.00 a barrel to close the day at $80.15 a barrel. WTI for March delivery settled at $76.56 a barrel, a loss of 83 cents on its previous close.     Markets this morning The NBP market has continued to creep up this morning, with the front month contract last going through at 122.60p per therm, a 1.25p premium to Monday’s close. Activity across the Spot and prompt market is subdued. The UK system is again short this morning, while wind and solar power production levels are low, with renewables making up just 16% of the power stack so far today. On top of the unplanned outage at Gallfaks, output from the Norwegian Karsto facility has been reduced by 15 mcm/day until January 27th, due to an unplanned outage. Crude oil prices have edged down this morning in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to apply new tariffs later than expected while boosting oil and gas production in the United States.