Gas Market
NBP prices were uncertain over what direction to take on Wednesday morning, but ultimately moved lower as the day progressed. A balanced system, strong supply from Norway, as well as forecasts for strong winds for the coming days eased some short-term supply concerns. Day ahead fell by 4.40p day-on-day to settle at 124.10p per therm while Within day shed 2.50p to close at 126.50p per therm. Tuesday’s upside on the curve was partially undone following signs of feedgas flow recovery at the Freeport LNG terminal in the U.S. where adverse weather conditions had hampered production levels earlier in the week. NBP near months shed an average of 3.43p per therm, while the biggest day-on-day move was seen on the Winter-25 contract, which posted a 3.77p discount to its previous close to settle at 114.99p per therm.
Power Market
Wind output for the remainder of the week is forecast to be between ten and twenty percent above seasonal norms. With temperatures also set to normalise, the GB Baseload Day ahead contract fell by 61.1% day-on-day to close at £108.79/MWh. Further out NBP and carbon losses weighed on the curve with the near months averaging losses of £1.92/MWh. The Winter-25 contract fell by £2.53/MWh to end the session at £91.63/MWh.
European carbon allowance prices were weighed down by weakness across European gas hubs on Wednesday. December 2025 allowances fell by 73 cents day-on-day to settle at €79.17 a tonne. UK allowances remained stable, with the December 2025 contract edging down by just 15 pence.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices traded sideways on Wednesday as markets remained tentative to the latest actions taken by President Donald Trump and the potential impact of proposed tariffs and the national energy emergency he declared on his first day in office. As more details emerge over the coming days regarding U.S. energy production and trade agreements, the impact on economic growth, energy security and policy risks will become clearer. Oil production levels have been hampered by adverse weather conditions tracking across the U.S. Gulf Coast and freezing conditions in other parts of the U.S., although the impact of this on prices has been limited. Front month Brent edged down by 29 cents to settle at $79.00 a barrel, its lowest close in almost two weeks.
Markets this morning
The NBP has clawed back much of yesterday’s losses this morning, with the front month contract last going through at 126.34p per therm, up 3.76p. Colder temperatures forecast for the UK and much of Northwest Europe from next week and into early February is providing some upside. Lower day-on-day Norwegian flows and LNG sendout are contributing to a short system today. Strong wind speeds until tomorrow will curb gas-for-power demand which should help to mitigate the supply limitations. Trade activity on the prompt is yet to get going. Crude oil prices remain stable, with front month Brent edging down by just 5 cents day-on-day.
23 January 2025
