Volatility ensued across the NBP market on Wednesday, with prices ultimately finishing below their previous close

Gas Market

A choppy morning session across the NBP on Wednesday ultimately resulted in losses during the afternoon. Ongoing hopes of peace in Ukraine continued to feed downside into prices, while bearish Asian spot LNG costs also weighed on the market. Asian spot LNG prices declined sharply yesterday on high Japanese stocks and falling Chinese demand, depleting demand from Europe’s main competition for LNG cargoes. The near months fell by an average of 3.65p per therm day-on-day while the Winter-25 contract posted the biggest day-on-day loss, falling by 4.01p to close out the day at 102.51p per therm. Prompt market losses were influenced by weak TTF prices, while exceptionally high solar output and warm temperatures helped to reduce gas-for-power demand, which also weighed on short-term contracts. Day ahead fell by 3.70p to close at 99.25p per therm.  

Power Market

Losses experienced by the NBP near and far curve on Wednesday fed into downside across the GB Baseload market yesterday. The April-25 contract fell by £2.65/MWh to close at £82.10/MWh, while the Winter-25 contract posted the biggest day-on-day discount to its previous close to settle at £85.75/MWh. A slight increase in temperatures forecast through the rest of the week allowed for a slight drop on the Day ahead contract which closed at £82.53/MWh. On Wednesday afternoon European carbon prices unwound early morning gains to fall below their previous close. The Spot EUA contract finished at €66.72 a tonne, down just 9 cents day-on-day, but still enough to close at a fresh 11-week low.  

Oil Market

Oil prices settled lower for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, breaching below the $70.00 a barrel marker for the first time since September. Brent for May delivery closed the day at $69.30 a barrel, down $1.74 day-on-day. The downside was determined by a combination of strong U.S. crude oil stockpiles and concerns over the impact of U.S. tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico. Fanning the downward flame was also OPEC+’s decision to proceed with planned crude oil production increases next month, which exacerbated worries of oversupply. The value of the U.S. dollar also weakened as investors grew increasingly concerned around trade tensions that could hamper the U.S. and global economy. The front month WTI contract posted a loss of $1.95 to close out the day at $66.31 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

Yesterday’s choppy sentiment has continued again this morning. After opening just below its previous close the April-25 contract last went through at 101.30p per therm, up 1.20p day-on-day. The Day ahead contract has opened above its previous close, with gas-for-power demand being driven up by a downward revision to wind speeds. Although temperatures are forecast to remain above norms for the rest of the week, after the weekend cooler temperatures could see an uptick in demand and subsequent increase across the prompt market. The front month Brent contract is up slightly as concerns over U.S. trade tariffs eased after Trump said he will exempt automakers from the 25% tariffs, raising optimism around the economic outlook.