Gas Market
A highly volatile session for gas prices across the curve saw significant price swings. The NBP front-month contract hit intra-day lows of 88.71p and highs of 101.54p before settling at 97.70p/th, up 4.67p. This rebound in prices from multi-month lows was driven by reports on Friday morning of intensified Russian attacks on Ukrainian gas production sites, which dampened hopes for a ceasefire. In response, Trump raised the prospect of imposing further large-scale U.S. sanctions on Russia and urged both sides to negotiate a peace deal. Additionally, forecasts of cooler temperatures and a decline in renewable energy generation the week of Monday 10th provided further support, with Day-ahead contract rising 2.50p to settle at 95.50p/th. Despite Friday’s gains, near-curve NBP gas prices fell by an average of 8.08p week-on-week, driven by growing optimism over a potential ceasefire in the Ukraine war and the possible lifting of Russian sanctions.
Power Market
UK Power prices were mixed, as forward contracts along the curve saw similar movements to the gas market as the Russian attacks gave support, pushing the front month contract up £2.70 to £80.75/MWh. The Day-ahead shed 5.10% to settle at £86.37 as warmer temperatures over the weekend weighed on prices. Wind power generation has been revised significantly upwards for the remainder of this week, providing further downward pressure on prompt prices.
EU carbon prices posted their fifth weekly loss in a row despite a gas market rally on Friday morning. The EUA Dec-25 contract gained €1.05 to settle at €68.21 per tonne on Friday. Despite this rally late on Friday, the contract declined €2.92 per tonne or 4.08% week on week.
Oil Market
Crude oil prices settled higher on Friday with Brent for May delivery adding 90 cents a barrel but over the week the global benchmark was down $2.82 a barrel. The on/off tariffs from the U.S. administration have left the market with some uncertainty after Trump backed down or suspended applying the extra duties to Canadian and Mexican motor car sector for a month. Later, prices retreated off intra-day highs after the U.S. president threatened to increase sanctions on Russia following the earlier missile attacks on Ukraine. Early support for prices came from a weaker dollar and reports that Russia is not fully behind the decision by OPEC+ to increase output from April. The group had voluntary cut production by 2.2m barrels per day and agreed to scale up product each month starting with an increase of 138,000 barrels per day from next month.
Markets this morning
NBP gas prices continue their upward momentum, approaching a key price trigger, with the front-month April contract last settling at 100.00p/th. Reports of intensified fighting between Russian and Ukrainian troops near the key gas transit pipeline in Kursk have supported prices along the curve this morning. The Day-ahead contract is up 5.25p at 100.75p/th, driven by forecasts for cooler temperatures, which have increased gas-for-power demand by 7 mcm/d for today. Meanwhile, Brent crude remains steady, edging up $0.18 to $70.54/bbl, as markets weigh the impact of U.S. tariffs on global economic growth and the potential for increased sanctions on Russian supply.
10 March 2025
