Gas Market
UK gas prices fluctuated between negative and positive territory throughout much of the day on Thursday. A morning rally was driven by increased EU storage withdrawals and updated forecasts indicating that cold weather would persist longer than previously expected. The NBP front month contract made early gains reaching an intra-day high of 106.80p/th before prices reacted late in the session to reports that the US was exploring potential energy cooperation with Gazprom, raising the possibility of a resumption of Russian pipeline supply to Europe. Additionally, Putin signalled support for a proposed 30-day ceasefire, though further details remained unclear. The NBP front month contract eventually settled down 1.20p at 102.99p/th. Further losses impacted the day-ahead contract as news of the completion of maintenance work on the Åsgard and Kårstø platforms boosted Norwegian gas flows. This fed into the 3.08p loss for the day as the contract closed at 102.00p/th.
Power Market
UK power prices remained mixed as cooler temperatures and lower wind output continued to support the market. News from the gas market arrived too late to significantly impact curve prices. The GB Baseload front-month contract edged up slightly, settling £0.08 higher at £85.25/MWh. Near curve GB baselaod contracts are up an average of £7.70/MWh week-on- week as bullishness on the NBP and carbon prices has provided support.
European carbon prices closely followed natural gas movements on Thursday, climbing to an eight-day high amid early strength in April TTF gas. However, mid-afternoon sell-off in the gas market dragged EUAs down from their highs with Dec-25 settling €0.98 up at €70.30 per tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices slipped on Thursday as markets weighed macroeconomic concerns after surging in the previous session due to a larger-than-expected draw in U.S. gasoline stocks. Escalating tariff wars and their potential global economic impact further pressured the market. Brent crude futures fell by $1.07 to $69.88 per barrel, while U.S. WTI crude futures declined by $1.13 cents to $66.55 per barrel. The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported yesterday that global oil supply could exceed demand by approximately 600,000 barrels per day this year, prompting a downward revision of its 2025 demand growth forecast. Meanwhile, OPEC+ noted that Kazakhstan led a significant increase in February crude output among the wider group. This rise in production poses a challenge for OPEC+ in enforcing adherence to agreed output targets, even as the group prepares to gradually unwind production cuts in April.
Markets this morning
Gas prices have yet to find direction on the forward curve this morning as near curve contracts are down an average of just 0.36p/therm. The lack of clarity surrounding the prospect of a quick end to the war in Ukraine is keeping both gas and oil prices rangebound. Russia’s tepid support of a 30-day ceasefire proposal with Ukraine has reduced confidence around a ceasefire in the short term. Brent crude May 25 is up 64 cents at $70.52/bbl. Colder temperatures and lower than average renewable generation is providing some support to the day-ahead gas contract with the last trade coming in at 104.50p/th, up 2.50p.
14 March 2025
