NBP futures started the week in negative territory on Monday

Gas Market

As talks of a peace deal continued there was still a lot of uncertainty and UK wholesale natural gas prices ended the week higher.  Contracts covering the summer months added just shy of a penny on Friday bringing the week’s gain to an average 6.00p per therm while contracts past the summer posted modest gains day-on day.  Prompt prices increased on Friday with products for the weekend and week ahead settling 6.43p and 4.50p higher respectively as a cool front is expected to add to heating load.  Prompt prices eased back on Monday with an increase in wind generation and a revised forecast for temperatures to edge higher.  The Spot and Day ahead shed 2.50p and 2.86p respectively. NBP futures started the week in negative territory on Monday as the EU to discuss proposals to relax requirements to have gas in storage 90% filled by 01-November. April, the front month for the NBP, settled 2.95p down at 100.94p while the May contract closed below the 100.00p mark at 99.59p.  

Power Market

April, the front month for the GB baseload power curve, settled £1.75/MWh higher on Friday bouyed by higher gas and carbon on the day. Baseload for the Day ahead eased by 4.0% or £4.11/MWh on Friday and dropped a further £4.24/MWh on Monday on forecasts for increased wind generation.  Yesterday, the declines witnessed on the NBP curve weighed on baseload futures and April settled £0.95/MWh lower at £86.05/MWh. Carbon EUAs settled higher on Friday with contracts out to Dec-27 closing an average of 49 cent higher.  The gains were reversed on Monday as contracts tracked gas futures lower and settled an average of 59 cent per tonne lower.  

Oil Market 

Friday’s gain of 70 cents per barrel for the May Brent contract brought the week’s movement into positive territory, just.  The global benchmark was only 22 cents up for the week after uncertainty around trade wars coupled with fears of oversupply left the market directionless.  U.S. attacks on Houthi rebels at the weekend gave support to crude oil prices on Monday.  The rebel groups have continued to target shipping in the Red Sea and it’s believed that the U.S. is likely to increase sanctions on Iran to reduce the amount of Iranian oil getting to the market.  Positive economic data from China also added some upside to crude oil prices yesterday.  Retail sales in the world’s second largest oil consuming nation grew by 4.0% year-on-year for the first two months and Brent settled 49 cents higher at $71.07 a barrel.  

Markets this morning

Near NBP futures increased by around a penny after opening this morning but have since yielded the early gains. The April contract last traded at 100.33p, which is 0.61p below last night’s close.  The GB gas system is running a small deficit this morning against demand pitched at 243mcm for today.  An unplanned outage at Asgard is likely to curb Norwegian flows by around 5mcm until tomorrow due to processor issues according to Gassco, the Norwegian gas operator.  Crude oil prices have ticked up on the back of reports that Israel has resumed attacks on Gaza overnight.  Brent for May delivery is up 94 cents at $72.01 a barrel.