The gas markets were a little subdued ahead of the Easter break and near months for the NBP posted minor gains

Gas Market

Trading for the NBP curve was subdued on Thursday as the market prepared for the long weekend break after a turbulent first half to the month.  Near months settled marginally higher on Thursday as average gains failed to get above a half a penny per therm day-on-day and this brought the recovery for the week to around 4.50p.  U.S. tariffs have threatened to spark a global trade war and wholesale gas prices for the near curve have declined around 15.0% or 15.50p on average since the start of April.  Uncertainty in the market is likely to cause some volatility for energy prices in the short term. Prompt prices settled mixed on Thursday with the Spot and Day ahead easing in response to the comfortable gas system while low wind forecasts from Tuesday underpinned the Week ahead and Balance of month products.  

Power Market

Baseload futures continued to add premium on Thursday with near months settling 1.1% or an average of £0.80/MWh higher. Early gains from the gas market were curbed by falling carbon prices on the day.  The Spot for European Allowances declined by €1.03 per tonne.  The Dec-2025 contract settled at €65.77 per tonne, down €1.06.  UKAs for 2025 and 2026 fell by £0.43 per tonne on average. Baseload for the Day ahead eased on Thursday despite forecasts for lower wind generation for the start of the week.  Wind generation averaged 7.6GW for the last week but is forecast at just 2.1GW for Tuesday. Solar is expected to increase to 5.5GW for the day.  

 Oil Market 

On Thursday, the U.S. President said he’d hoped to progress trade agreements with Europe which provided a lift to crude oil prices before the Easter break. This followed a visit by the Italian Prime Minister to Washington were the two met to discuss the trade tensions.  The global benchmark had been boosted by strong economic data from China earlier in the week and the June contract bounced by a further $2.11 a barrel on Thursday, closing at $67.96 a barrel.  Adding to the upside on the day were reports of new sanctions issued by the U.S. administration on Chinese importers of Iranian oil while smaller refineries based in China were also targeted.  

Markets this morning

The GB gas system has recovered from opening short this morning with the demand pitched at 183mcm for today. The Day ahead is up 2.00p per them in early exchanges however, the Spot is still to post a trade.  NBP futures have opened softer with near months down 2.45p on average as the front month threatens to go below 85.00p. The crude oil markets were active yesterday and Brent shed $1.70 a barrel over the day to settle at $66.26, after U.S. stocks plunged and the U.S. President called for the Chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, to lower interest rates. The global benchmark is almost a dollar a barrel higher this morning at $67.24 a barrel.