NBP gas contracts were rangebound on Friday as markets kept a watchful eye on the talks which took place between Russia and Ukraine.

Gas Market

NBP gas contracts were rangebound on Friday as markets kept a watchful eye on the talks which took place between Russia and Ukraine. Although the discussions did not result in a ceasefire agreement, a possible new round of talks were alluded to. The front month contract reached an intra-day low of 82.87p per therm before edging back up to close at 83.84p per therm, up 1.4% week-on-week. The GB system was well supplied, which pressured the Spot market down, with healthy levels of renewables in the power stack also playing into the downside. The Within day contract posted a 3.75p per therm loss to close out the session at 79.75p per therm. The Day ahead contract also edged down, shedding 1.05p to end the week at 79.71p per therm.

Power Market

GB Baseload near months mirrored the modest decline seen across the NBP gas market on Friday. The front month contract edged down by £0.83/MWh to close at £74.93/MWh. A downward revision to wind forecasts for the weekend and early this week supported the prompt market with the Day ahead contract increasing by £9.36/MWh. However, a continuation of above average temperatures mitigated the upside. Friday saw volatile activity across European carbon markets, with prices reaching highs not seen for 3 months before falling back in the afternoon session. EUA’s for December 2025 settled €2.15 lower to close the week at €71.32 a tonne.

Oil Market

Oil prices edged up marginally on Friday, with the modest gains enough to ensure a second consecutive week of increases. The front month Brent contract closed at $65.41 a barrel, up 88 cents on Thursday’s close and up 5.3% since the start of the month. Optimism due to the recent trade agreement between the U.S. and China continued to provide support. More pronounced gains were limited however by concerns that increased oil supply levels will be available in the market. OPEC+ plans to unwind its voluntary supply cuts in the coming months, while a potential U.S.-Iran deal would bring even more crude to an already saturated market. The front month WTI contract increased by 87 cents day-on-day to settle at $62.49 a barrel.

Markets this morning

NBP near months have opened at a slight premium to Friday’s close, with the market remaining tentative to geopolitical developments between Russia and Ukraine. Trump is scheduled to discuss a proposed ceasefire with Putin over the phone this week, having previously stated that there would be no progress towards peace until the two meet face-to-face. The front month contract is up 0.71p day-on-day having last gone through at 84.55p per therm. The Day ahead contract is so far up by 4.30p, with cooler temperatures and an increase in gas-for-power demand providing the upside. Crude oil prices have declined slightly due to weak economic indicators from China. The front month Brent contract last transacted at $64.93 a barrel. down 48 cents day-on-day.