Gas Market
UK gas prices had a mixed session on Monday. The Day-ahead price rose by 4.30p to 84.00p/th, driven by increased gas-for-power demand due to low wind generation and significant scheduled maintenance at Norwegian gas fields. Along the forward curve, price movements were varied: the front-month June contract edged up by 0.45p to 84.29p/th, while the Summer 2026 contract slipped by 0.25p to 81.26p/th. Markets appeared to be awaiting developments from U.S.-brokered talks involving Russia and Ukraine. Following phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, former U.S. President Donald Trump announced that ceasefire negotiations will immediately start. However, Putin’s official statement was more reserved, offering no meaningful shift in the Kremlin’s position.
Power Market
GB Baseload futures settled higher on Monday, supported by expectations of significant maintenance at the Troll and Kollsnes gas facilities, which is expected to cut flows by nearly 170 mcm/day from tomorrow. The front-month June contract rose by £1.33 to £76.25/MWh, while the Day-ahead price rose 5.97% to £87.10/MWh, further lifted by lower wind generation contributing to a tighter supply outlook.
The UK and EU reached an agreement to link their carbon markets and exempt each other from their respective Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms (CBAMs). In carbon trading, the EUA Dec-25 contract dipped slightly by €0.93 to €70.39/tonne, while the UKA 2025 contract saw a sharp increase of £3.91 (8.1%) to £52.33/tonne.
Oil Market
Oil prices steadied on Monday, with Brent crude futures edging up by 13 cents to $65.54 per barrel, as markets weighed mixed economic signals. Despite a downgrade to the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody’s and official data revealing slower growth in China’s industrial output and retail sales, the modest gain in oil was supported by signs of a breakdown in U.S. talks with Iran over it’s nuclear program. Without an agreement, U.S sanctions limiting a potential increase of 300,000 to 400,000 barrels per day of Iranian oil exports are likely to remain in place, tightening global supply. A U.S. sovereign credit downgrade due to rising levels of government debt raised doubts over the economic health of the world’s largest oil consuming nation.
Markets this morning
UK gas prices opened higher on this morning, supported by outages at Norway’s Troll and Kollsnes facilities. Norwegian imports have fallen by 23 mcm/d, leaving the UK system 14 mcm short at open and lifting near-curve NBP contracts by an average of 2.21p/therm. Winter 2025 has risen 1.77p to 96.00p/therm, while prompt contracts have yet to trade, though the tighter supply picture is expected to be price supportive. Oil prices remain steady amid uncertainty surrounding both Russia-Ukraine and U.S.–Iran negotiations. Front-month Brent is down just 19 cents at $65.35/bbl.
20 May 2025
