Gas Market
An increase in demand over the day boosted prompt prices on the NBP while a breakdown in ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine supported the curve. Planned maintenance works at several Norwegian assets curbed gas imports yesterday and the GB gas system was stretched having to respond to an increase in gas demand due to cooler temperatures over the session. Prompt prices settled 2.75p per therm higher with the Day ahead product closing at 84.25p. Near months had gained around a penny in the morning in response to the lack of progress in the peace talks and gains were almost doubled after the rally on the prompt late in the afternoon. At the close, the July contract was 2.02p higher at 83.49p while the Winter-25 contract settled at 94.92p, adding 1.65p.
Power Market
Gains to gas and carbon fed into the baseload power curve yesterday as near contracts added £0.75/MWh on average. The July contract added £0.63/MWh to settle at £74.88/MWh while further out, Winter-25 was marked £1.02/MWh up at £85.18/MWh. Speculative trading in the carbon markets pushed EUAs higher yesterday as the Spot added €1.71 per tonne while contracts out to 2027 were 2.0% up on average.
A lower revision to wind generation for Wednesday coupled with cooler temperatures propped up the Day ahead product on Tuesday. Wind was around 18.2GW yesterday and is forecast to fall by around 3.0GW, however, solar is expected to increase by circa 1.0GW.
Oil Market
The breakdown in talks between Russian and Ukrainian representatives in Istanbul provided some upside to crude oil prices on Tuesday. While discussions have led to agreements for prisoners from both sides being released, progress for a speedy end to the conflict waned as the gap between the two sides remains vast. Support also came from reports that Iran is expected to reject the latest proposal from the U.S. for a nuclear deal which could have paved the way for an easing of sanctions on the OPEC+ member. Meanwhile, wildfires in Canada’s Alberta province continued to impact around 7% of the country’s crude oil output yesterday. The August contract for Brent was a dollar higher at the close while WTI for July delivery added 89 cents a barrel.
Markets this morning
NBP futures have opened firmer this morning and have continued to creep higher in early trading. The front month is 1.34p per therm higher at 84.83p while the Winter-25 contract last exchanged at 95.95p, up just over a penny. Prompt prices have yet to trade, however, current bid/ ask spreads would suggest the Spot and Day ahead products will open around a penny higher. The GB gas system is comfortable this morning with demand at 125mcm, however, planned summer maintenance at several Norwegian plants are set to curb imports in early June. In the crude oil markets, Trump’s doubling of U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminium has stalled the rebound to crude oil prices as Brent is 15 cents down at $65.48 a barrel.
04 June 2025
