Gas Market
The front months for the NBP opened in positive territory on Thursday and early increases of around 2.00p per therm were held until the close. Scheduled maintenance works curbed supplies from Norway as GB demand increased to 135mcm to compensate for lower wind generation on the day and the system was showing a deficit with an hour of trading to go. Prompt prices added just over a penny and a half as the Day ahead product settled at 86.00p, the highest this month. On the curve, the July contract settled at 85.42p, up 2.06p while the Winter-25 contract added 1.67p to close at 95.97p. Trump had another call with the Russian President but there are no dates set for the next round of peace talks and hopes of a ceasefire are fading as the war between Russia and Ukraine intensifies.
Power Market
After a quiet day in the power markets on Wednesday, baseload futures were lifted by early gains on the NBP curve yesterday. The July contract settled £1.68/MWh higher with higher carbon prices on the day adding to the upside. European allowances for contracts out to 2027 closed up by around 0.5% or 38 cent per tonne on average while the Spot price added 51 cent per tonne to settle at €72.02.
Wind generation fell through Thursday with forecasts for Friday at 6.6GW, however, solar is forecast at 4.2GW. Baseload for the Day ahead settled slightly down yesterday but the contract could come under pressure next week with forecasts for wind and solar to rise again.
Oil Market
Social media posts from President Trump gave a lift to crude oil prices yesterday as he spoke of a call with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The posts gave hopes that trade talks between the top two oil consuming nations will resume and prevent an escalation of the trade war. It’s been reported that the new Canadian PM, Mark Carney, has also reached out to Trump to engage in trade talks. Brent settled 48 cents a barrel higher at $65.34 yesterday and gains were limited by reports that Saudi Arabia had trimmed its July price for its Asian customers. This was a strange move considering the market could be flooded soon if OPEC+ continue with the monthly output increases. There are thoughts that this could be a move by Saudi to recover its market share.
Markets this morning
Crude oil prices have eased this morning, but Brent is trading in a tight range. The August contract is down 27 cents reacting to the drop in some U.S. stocks late last night following the spat between Donald Trump and Elon Musk over the U.S. tax bill. The row has caused further uncertainty in the markets this morning. Closer to home, NBP futures have ticked up a touch with July last trading at 86.23p per therm, while the Winter contract is 0.63p higher at 96.60p. The prompt has yet to get off the mark, but GB gas demand is pitched lower at 123mcm for today and the system is balanced. Carbon EUAs continue to add premium this morning with contracts for 2025 and 2026 up by around 50 cent per tonne.
06 June 2025
