Gas Market
Wednesdays gains were consolidated yesterday but the increases to the near curve were modest. Concerns for the French nuclear fleet added some upside as further testing on reactors may be required during the summer. Confidence in the trade framework deal between the U.S. and China was tested through the session as China remained silent on the details, suggesting Trump’s claims may have been exaggerated a touch. The front month for the NBP settled just 0.72p per therm higher at 84.89p while the Winter-25 contract added 1.14p to close at 96.71p. The December contract posted the largest gain of the day at 1.19p, going on to settle at 98.79p. Prompt prices responded to a drop in imports through the Langeled line which left the GB gas system short and the Spot and Day products ahead were around 2.50p up when the day was done.
Power Market
Baseload power futures and carbon received a boost from reports that EDF is to test its nuclear fleet this summer. The reports came after a unit which was offline already had shown signs of stress corrosions and EDF has decided to carry out further investigations. The market feared this could lead to interruptions in output as occurred in 2022 and 2023. July baseload settled £1.50/MWh higher at £78.75/MWh.
Carbon EUAs rose by 1.5% or €1.17 a tonne on average on the back of concerns for the French nuclear fleet yesterday. Baseload for the Day ahead rebounded sharply from Wednesday’s low as wind generation to fall on Friday to around 8.0GW.
Oil Market
The gains to crude oil prices from Wednesday were extended on Thursday morning as the market was buoyed by early optimism around the trade deal between China and the U.S. Brent, the global benchmark, peaked at $70.25 a barrel but weakness in the dollar and China’s refusal to confirm the details of the trade deal raised speculation that the deal may not be over the line just yet and crude oil prices switched tack. Reports that the U.S. had ordered diplomats to leave the Iranian embassy raised concerns around increasing tensions in area as no reason was given for the ordered departure. At the close Brent for August delivery was 41 cents down at $69.36 a barrel, the U.S. benchmark, West Texas Intermediate, closed at $67.97, just 11 cents a barrel down.
Markets this morning
The overnight attacks by Israel on military and nuclear targets in Iran and subsequent retaliation by Iran has sent energy markets soaring this morning. Crude oil prices have risen to 5-month highs with Brent trading to $78.50 a barrel early on. Latest exchanges for the August contract are around $74.30 a barrel, up $4.95 on last night’s close. Gas prices have opened sharply with the July contract for the NBP 5.14p per therm up at 90.03p having peaked at 91.00p earlier. The Winter-25 contract last traded at 101.48p, up 4.77p. There are no trades agreed on the prompt board yet, but contracts are likely to track the near curve higher. In the carbon markets EUA contracts for 2025 and 2026 are €1.05 per tonne up on average.
13 June 2025
